PTI
From the Indian capital through the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, rural India, and decrepit towns
Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal is on a campaign roadshow. This is his first foray into the Hindi heartland ahead of next month’s general elections in India.
The AAP’s UP convenor Sanjay Singh declared war on the menace of three Cs – corruption, communalism, corporate. Then he made the surprise announcement that should BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi contest from Varanasi, as is being speculated, Kejriwal should fight the Lok Sabha election from there as well.
Instantaneously, a deafening roar swept over the ground. Those sitting were on their feet, their arms held aloft, bursting out into that incomprehensible scream which unambiguously signifies approval and excitement. Late night, an eatery-owner, a self-avowed BJP voter for decades, thought it was audacious of Kejriwal to dare Modi and predicted it might alter the election scenario in UP in unforeseen ways.
Such predictions are based on the giant-slayer reputation that Kejriwal has acquired, having stumped a complacent Sheila Dikshit in her constituency. But then, Modi is no Dikshit. He looms over UP, dominating street-corner discussions and the public arena alike. There isn’t a corner from where Modi doesn’t stare at you, testifying to the lavish expenditure incurred on building him as the BJP’s mascot.
The AAP is trying to target social categories in the UP. It has won support of some of the urban middle class, but this has limited appeal in the Hindi heartland, which is still in thrall to primordial identities. In urban UP, a substantial section of the middle class has been demonstrating an inclination towards the BJP, buying as much into Modi’s development plank as into his Hindu persona, the memory of which never fades. Yet, among its legion of supporters there are many who say their voting decision will ultimately depend on the candidates whom political parties will field.
Despite having been projected as a middle class party, AAP’s appeal appears strongest among the urban lower classes/castes, the members of which still retain their rural roots. No wonder, the rhetoric of big business appropriating land, or the inflationary pressure on the economy arising from the government’s decision to pay a higher price to the
Ambanis for extracting gas have special resonance for this category. But beyond these economic ideas, they are pulled to the AAP to provide corruption-free governance and smashing of the network of privileges. It won’t be surprising to find on the AAP’s list of candidates in UP a fair sprinkling of lower class/caste people.
The most astonishing aspect of AAP’s foray into UP is its appeal to Muslims, which is delighted by its attack on Modi. A team of AAP volunteers at a roadside kiosk outside Bareilly town claimed nearly 70 per cent of those who participate in the camps they hold belong to the Muslim community. There were other indicators as well – the reception accorded to Kejriwal was arguably the warmest in the Muslim-dominated Moradabad and the induction of Shia cleric Maulana Kalbe Rushaid and members of the Aligarh Muslim University Old Boys’ Association into the party.
Inclination, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into votes. In particular, Muslims rarely vote a party in large numbers which doesn’t have the support of one or two dominant Hindu castes in rural India or doesn’t stand a chance to vanquish the BJP.
It is to overcome the paucity of time, not to say of resources, AAP plans to risk fielding Kejriwal against Modi, believing the move could turn its admirers into voters. Yes, it could eat into the expanding BJP support base, but it could also fracture the anti-BJP vote to Modi’s advantage.
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