Now that the Baidya Maoists appear to be showing slightly more flexibility, the election for another Constituent Assembly is beginning to look more likely. Various public opinion surveys have shown over the past six months that the people want elections in the fervent hope that it might finally somehow help bring closure to this messy political transition.
This support for election, however, exists even though the people know fully well that the CA-2 will be composed mostly of the very same politicians who couldn’t get the earlier assembly to write a new constitution and used it shamelessly to line their own pockets and fill up party coffers. Despite being badly cheated, voters this time would like to use their franchise to register their disillusionment with politics-as-usual. Provided, of course, they are not terrorised by party cadre.
Which is why a fool-proof and effective security in the campaign period and during voting is of utmost importance if the election is to have any meaning. Our goal should not be elections just for the sake of elections.
However, Nepali politicians seem too busy with politics-as-usual to notice just how disenchanted the populace is. When cheating and intimidation get votes, the least of their worries is public opinion. The parties now number more than 120 and they are talking once more about a jumbo assembly of 601 members so that everyone gets a piece of the cake.
Some parties demand ethnicity-based federalism. Although because donor funding has dried up for this agenda, erstwhile top guns seem to be deserting that particular bandwagon. One survey after another has shown that most people do not want the division of this densely multi-ethnic country into arbitrarily carved autonomous enclaves in the name of federalising the country. But since public opinion doesn’t matter for populist rabble rousers, politicians pretend not to see the writing on the wall.
The root cause for the self-centred nature of our politicos and their chronic lack of accountability is the fact that they come from the ranks of the feudal elite in our traditionally agrarian rural communities who have always imposed their own verdict on their underprivileged and disadvantaged constituents. Their game plan for elections, as in the past, will consist of vote-buying, intimidating, cheating, and ballot stuffing. And for good measure, they try to stoke ethnic and geographic loyalties for vote banks. The YCL’s violence and vandalism in Chitwan this week were reminiscent of the Maoist use of muscle in 2008 and could presage what will happen in November.
Despite vestigial feudalism, however, Nepalis vote intelligently when elections are free and fair, as we saw in 1991 and local elections thereafter. Two Nepali innovations, forest user groups and mothers’ groups, also show that grassroots democracy is alive and kicking in this country. Direct stakeholders in the communities irrespective of their caste, class, and gender differences are already empowered to participate in their own decision making.
As things stand, going by the various poll results, the contest in the upcoming election is going to be mainly between two positions: one favouring federalisation of the country and another against it, the latter favouring devolution of authority to the grassroots for accelerated local development.
Therefore, in order to enable people to cast their ballot freely, security arrangements for November must be of the top order. But the police, Armed Police, and Nepal Army may not be up to the task. At present, security personnel are so demoralised that they are bystanders when political goons hold entire districts hostage.
On the geopolitical front, neighbours India and China which purportedly want to see a politically stable Nepal, must coordinate the leverage with the parties so that they behave themselves. The aim should be to try to have a deal on the main facets of the constitution even before elections so it won’t really matter who wins. That is the only way to avert another stalled CA.
Independent election observers too must do their homework early and not behave like the parachutists of 2008 who were so eager to see free and fair elections that they ignored evidence to the contrary.