PRESS TRUST OF INDIA
It is possible the pugnacious Aam Admi Party leader, Arvind Kejriwal, could emerge as Barack Obama when the Indian capital elects its state assembly in December 2013.
Five years before Obama became the first black president of the United States, he had caught the popular imagination there through a stirring speech in the Democratic Party convention in Chicago. Yet, nobody then really believed that the young, promising politician could eventually become the president of a country torn by race prejudices.?
India’s Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party should remember this as elections to the Delhi assembly nears. The mainstream political parties grudgingly accept Kejriwal’s growing popularity, but superciliously dismiss the possibility that he or his party could become a factor in the assembly polls. They ask: can they even find candidates for all the 70 seats of the Delhi Assembly? They can’t field Kejriwal everywhere, can they?
?AAP’s charm for the electorate can be gleaned from the fact that over one million people submitted electricity bills to the party, pledging not to pay. Consumers in Delhi have been reeling under high electricity and water bills and Kejriwal’s satyagraha is a protest against privatisation as well, apart from introducing a new style of political formation.
A public opinion survey of voters in Delhi showed that the AAP could muster between 14-18 per cent of votes, a commendable feat for a party established only?a few months ago. Since the poll was conducted 45 days before Kejriwal went on his fast, it won’t be off the mark to predict that AAP could soon breach the crucial barrier of 20 per cent: the figure beyond which support begins to translate into votes. Should this indeed turn out to be the case, the vote share of the Congress and the BJP would dip below 30 per cent, at which point they will begin to lose seats in far greater proportion than the swing against them would have ordinarily caused.
Further, this opinion survey asked voters to list their preferences for the chief minister of Delhi. No names were provided; it is the kind of question for which a substantial percentage of respondents tick the don’t know/can’t say box. Nevertheless, Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit topped with 16 per cent of votes, Kejriwal was second with 11 per cent, and BJP’s Vijay Goyal lagged behind with just five per cent. The pollster’s questionnaire also asked who among the candidates would be best for Delhi. Kejriwal received the maximum votes.
On a visit to Sundar Nagri, I discovered that the support for Kejriwal has percolated below the middle class, from which he had drawn sustenance during the anti-corruption movement, to those who are fired less by promises of turning our cities into Shanghai or New York and more by rhetoric hoping to make their tomorrow a tad more tolerable.
Perhaps comparing Kejriwal to Obama is inappropriate in a parliamentary democracy which, unlike the presidential system, is theoretically said to be impervious to the charismatic influence of individual leaders. But in India we have seen leaders spearhead their parties to victory on their individual steam. Think of the impact Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, and Sonia Gandhi have had on the fortunes of the Congress. Or look at the BJP cadre clamouring for Narendra Modi, believing the party under his leadership can triumph in the 2014 election.
AAP’s growth, as also its ambition, could still get nixed for various reasons. For one, the perception that a fledgling outfit, however well meaning, doesn’t stand a chance to win often prompts even its diehard supporters to cast their votes in favour of one of the two leading political parties they consider as a lesser evil. Second, it is still uncertain whether AAP’s politics of interest, as spelt out through the agenda of bijli, pani, and corruption can neutralise the irresistible lure the politics of identity (caste and religion) invariably has for the Indian electorate.
Should the AAP manage to spring a surprise in the Delhi assembly elections, it could have implications for the 2014 General Election. A victory in Delhi for AAP augurs well for Delhi, for it could hold out the hope of changing the complexion of the existing political class, whose members boast family lineage, are often rich, and consider power not as an instrument to transform society but to enrich themselves.
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