Bikram Rai
Whether CPN (Maoist-Centre) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal will succeed as Prime Minister this time depends largely on how he will deal with the following challenges:
1. Constitutional amendment
The ruling NC-Maoist coalition has reached a three-point deal with the Madhesi Front to amend the constitution, which could be Dahal’s biggest challenge. Political analyst Puranjan Acharya says: “Without the UML, it will be difficult to address Madhesi issues by amending the constitution. And securing the UML’s consent will be very difficult.”
2. Constitution implementation
The Constitution stipulates categorically that local, federal and parliamentary elections will have to be held before December 2017. But without revising a number of laws in tune with the Constitution, it will not be possible to hold any elections. Determining the number and size of local administrative areas within federal provinces is also tricky. Madhesi parties have refused to take part in any elections unless their political demands are met.
3. Peace process
Even in 2008 when he became Prime Minister for the first time, Dahal could not use his power to nullify 6,000 legal cases pending against him, other Maoist leaders and cadre. He faces tremendous pressure from within his party to act on this critical issue, and needs to protect his comrades while respecting international norms of transitional justice.
4. Alliance with the NC
Dahal is the Chair of the third-largest party, and he has become Prime Minister with the backing of the largest party, the NC. Ministers representing the NC in the government might not obey him, and it will be difficult for him to retain NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba’s trust.
5. Reconstruction
Dahal’s predecessors, Sushil Koirala and KP Oli, were criticised for not acting swiftly to help the post-earthquake recovery. Now, Dahal will have to prove that he is different, and cares for poor earthquake survivors while ensuring good governance.
6. Balanced diplomacy
Former PM Oli signed the trade and transit treaty with China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Kathmandu appeared possible. If there is no progress in implementing the transit deal or President Xi does not come to Nepal, it will be considered Dahal’s failure. He has to balance this with India’s sensitivity about closeness with China. It will be an uphill task for him to maintain equidistance with Beijing and New Delhi.