Climate change could devastate Asian countries, affect future growth, reverse development gains, and degrade quality of life, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, a 6^o Celsius temperature increase is projected over the Asian landmass by the end of the century. Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northwestern China could reach 8^o Celsius increase, according to the report, A Region at Risk: The Human Dimensions of Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific.

The warming would lead to drastic changes in the region’s weather system, agriculture and fisheries, biodiversity, regional security, trade, urban development, migration, and health. Some countries could even face an existential threat.

“The Asian countries hold Earth’s future in their hands. If they choose to protect themselves against dangerous climate change, they will help to save the entire planet,” said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of the Postdam Institute. He says the challenge is twofold: Asian greenhouse-gas emissions have to be reduced to limit planetary warming to well below 6^o Celsius, yet even adapting to 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise is a major task. But Asian countries also have to ensure prosperity and security under unavoidable climate change.

He adds that leading the clean industrial revolution will provide Asia with unprecedented economic opportunities. And exploring the best strategies to absorb the shocks of environmental change will make Asia a crucial actor in 21st-century multilateralism.

More intense typhoons and tropical cyclones are expected to hit Asia and the Pacific with rising global mean temperatures. Pakistan and Afghanistan may experience a decline in rainfall by 20-50%.

Coastal and low-lying areas in the region will be at an increased risk of flooding with 19 cities exposed to a one-meter sea-level rise. Approximately 6 million Indonesians will be affected by coastal flooding.

Global flood losses are expected to increase to $52 billion per year by 2050 from $6 billion in 2005 with most vulenerable being Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Zhanjiang, Xiamen, Mumbai, Chennai, Surat, Kolkata, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Bangkok and Nagoya.

Rice yields could decline by up to 50% by 2100, the number of malnourished children in South Asia could increase by 7 million. Heat-related deaths in the region among the elderly are expected to increase as well as malaria and dengue fatalities.

A business-as-usual approach to climate change could also disrupt functioning ecosystem services, prompting mass migration — mostly to urban areas — that could make cities more crowded and overwhelm available social services. Hydropower plants could not perform at full capacity.

To mitigate the impact of climate change, the report highlights the importance of implementing the commitments laid out in the Paris Agreement: public and private investments in rapid decarbonisation of Asian economies, as well as adaptation measures. ADB approved a record $3.7 billion in climate financing in 2016 and has committed to further scale up its investments to $6 billion by 2020.

Full report: : https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/325251/region-risk-climate-change.pdf