Maoists in hideouts in India are having a tough time after Indian security was beefed up in New Delhi, Uttaranchal, Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim. And they have been alienated from their supporters in India.
Among the high Maoist commands Rit Bahadur Khadka, Ajab Lal Yadav, Yan Prasad Gautam and Krishna Sen Ichhuk have been killed, while Krishna Dhoj Khadka, woman leader Rekha Sharma, and youth leaders Shiva Dangi, Tara Bhandari and Shashi Shrestha, etc have been arrested. The Maoist information network has also been assaulted.
On the other hand, the Maoist central command is vertically split. Our sources say that powerful central committee and politburo members Mohan Baidhya (Kiran) Ram Bahadur Thapa Magar, Nanda Kishor Pun (Pasang), Barsha Ram Pun, Poshta Bahadur Bogati, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Dev Gurung, Matrika Yadav, Santosh Buda (Rolpa), Bam Dev Chhetri and Buddhi Yonjan are firmly against any talks with the government. A vertical split between those for and against talks with the government is visible within the party.
Prachanda supporters like CP Gajurel, Haribol Gajurel, Pampha Bhushal, Hisila Yami, Prakash Dahal, Agni Sapkota, Dr Baburam Bhattarai, Suresh Ale Magar, Shakti Lamsal want to use peace talks as a tool to distract the government from its operation against the Maoists.
A third fraction, led by Gopal Khambu and other leaders Jhakku Prasad Subedi, Dipak Dahal, Chatur Man Rajbanshi, is trying to distance itself from both the Prachanda Path and the Badal Path. There are still other Maoist leaders who want to use the upcoming elections, Jana Morcha-style: Dinesh Sharma, Dina Nath Gautam, Basanta Shrestha, Bimala Subedi, Devendra Paudel, Dev Nath Yadav, Ishwor Chandra Gyawaqli, Jai Krishan Goit, Kumar Dhakal, Kumar Shah, Ramesh Chaulagai, Surya Yadav, Surya Thapa, Thaman Pariyar and Hemanta Prakash Oli.
We have not been able to learn the names of seven other leaders who support talks with the government, but our sources tell us that Shakti Bahadur Basnet, Tilak Pariya, Uma Kanta Khanal and Jaya Puri Gharti could be among their numbers.