Nepali Times Asian Paints
Headline
Nation's pulse


DAMBAR KRISHNA SHRESTHA
Himalmedia has been conducting public opinion surveys almost every year for the past 10 years. The 2011 poll was carried out last week in 38 districts, interviewing a statistical random sampling of 4,000 respondents.

Compared to last year's poll, the people are more vocal in expressing their frustration with the continued political deadlock. Their trust in the three main parties is at an all-time low. They see the continued polarisation between the NC and the Maoists as the main reason, but are convinced that the only way forward is a government of national unity.

The survey had some significant revelations:
ē If the political parties mend their ways, the people are willing to grant a six-month extension of the CA, otherwise nearly half the respondents said it would be better to have fresh elections.
ē A majority think ethnicity-based federalism is a bad idea
ē Asked to name three main problems the country faces, a majority listed inflation, constitution deadlock, and political instability
ē A majority felt health, education and transportation services had improved and reaffirmed the role of local communities in development, and they were for holding local elections

Which political party would you trust the most to lead the country towards peace, prosperity and democracy?

Which political party is most responsible for obstructing the constitution drafting and peace process in the last one year?

What is the way out if the CA term is not extended?

Read also:
Few surprises, EDITORIAL
A decade of democratic deficit, ANURAG ACHARYA
Netas, are you listening?, DAMBAR K SHRESTHA in JHAPA



1. Arthur
What a joke! Not even the readers of Nepali Times could actually believe that Congress has more supporters than Maoists.

To get such a result the survey must have been biased towards better off people.

Why not just survey your own readers and get an even more impressive result agreeing with yourselves?

The problem with this kind of stuff is not that it deceives anybody else but that helps you to avoid actually thinking about and responding to the reality you are faced with but refuse to look at.



2. They(Netas) can't hear & they have no manner


3. who cares
can believe, maosit still have 20% support. 

actually, i normally dont believe such polls in nepal. but this seems accurate, my wild guess is similar. 


fresh mandate and leave to expert are exciting.


maoist supporters/voters are aggressive, so, i think, most of those who choose- dont know, others, all parties normally wont be voting for maoist. 

so, in next election, maoist may become present uml. 




4. Suresh R
There goes Arthur the Bore with his boring point of veiw which is that "anyone who doesn't agree with me is biased". The important point is not that the Congressis are one % ahead of the Maobadis but that 30 % are undecided. This mass is going to swing to whichever party is honest, is committed to development and doesn't extort and kill people.  


5. Raj

Sure is obvious that Arthur thinks, that even after the continued extortion of the Maoists YCL, and their multi-tongued talk and behaviour, that the Maoists should be still most popular can call the survey baised, because he does not like the results.

 

Aruthur, who I think is Dr. Baburam Bhattrai in reality, should know that all surveys have a level or error which this write up has not given.  who knows  that the margin of error makes the findings of 20.1 and 21.8 not that significant.

 

If so, will he then think that  the NT survey is not biased? 



6. Arthur
#4 and #5, the survey would be equally ridiculous if it showed the NC only a small % less than the Maoists instead of a small % more than Maoists.

Everybody knows (including you) that the NC vote collapsed at the last elections and that they have not grown stronger since.

An honest survey might very well show that a large % are "don't know" and this could be important. It could even show that that the Maoist support has become less and the don't know has become more.

But pretending that NC support has actually increased to more than the Maoists when the NC party organization as basically
collapsed is simply ridiculous.

As #3 says, it is just the sort of wild guess that "who cares" would dream of.in his fantasy world.

There is no link provided to a proper description of the survey details. Unlike previous surveys, NT is not even pretending this survey should be taken seriously.


7. who cares
i think maoist have about 15% support.

and regarding my dream "i have a dream to see nepalese, with khukuris in their hand, chasing maosit".



and any fool define "maoist wanting to extend CA term while others demanding fresh election".


may be meaning of extending CA term is "fresh election" to one fool and demanding fresh election is "hanging on with what they had got". 
 


8. rishav

Looks like the people are becoming more vocal and less afraid of the Maoists. This will be a disappointment to the Maoists and probably are more unlikely to want to give up their militant YCL and PLA if poles like this one still continue to show such results.


9. B2B
It does not surprise me not at all! All my feelers from Ilam, Okhaldhunga, Dharan, Janakpur, Nepalgunj are sending me the same tendency of Maoists going downhill.
 
I hope the elites in the capital have felt the wind turning. I urge them to inform the populace thru media  that the Maoism ain't a Democracy. As such, they wouldn't draft a New Constitution which will put an end to their dream of one party, one rule.
 
The suffering people of Nepal will for sure pay the Maoists back in their own coin.
 
Only word to repeat is do not cave in, guys!?!
 


10. Gole
Arthur should know t5hat Maoist got higher votes on the last election due to show of force and the euphoria and Nepalese attitude of giving chance to the untried ones. Now they want fully democratic constitution with social and economic justice; not one party dictatorship.
 Cumminism is getting what it deserves . Look at West Bengal or Assam Or in Kerala election result.
Arthur must pack and go back to his native land. No room for wild animal!
 


11. Arthur
Gole #10, the only "show of force" was from Madheshi parties (eg 28 Maoists killed in Gaur incident). PLA was in cantonments and NA in barracks, as is still true today.

Perhaps some Maoist votes were due to "euphoria" and certainly the Maoist election slogan that the other parties have had their chance so "why not try the Maoists" was effective.

But what has changed? The other parties have discredited themselves even more by refusing to let the Maoists have their chance despite losing the elections. There will be less scope than before for Madheshi violence (and the Madheshi parties have discredited themselves even more than others by doing nothing for federalism and being more corrupt than UMLs and NC). So the only negative for Maoists is less "euphoria".

Shouting about one party dictatorship cannot save Congress. It is becoming more ridiculous the longer they keep shouting this.

Anyway, it may be interesting to review this soon. Unless the Kangresis back down within a couple of weeks it looks like they may have trapped themselves into dissolving the CA. They would find out then how much support they have in elections!

With their usual brilliant tactics they have managed maneuver themselves into a position where instead of the Maoists being blamed for the CA expiring while the Kangresis (and their wing of the UMLs) remain in government trying to avoid calling elections, it would be the Kangresis themselves that accepted responsibility for CA being dissolved while their opponents remain in government and proceed to organize new elections.

It would be fun to watch all those people shouting to dissolve the CA for a "fresh mandate" then instead shouting that what they really want is "Presidential" (ie military) rule instead of having to face elections!

This is the 21st century and that idea of not electing a new legislature when the old one expires simply will not work. Even in Egypt it doesn't work with fake elections or no elections any more.


12. Deep
Like most of the tiny sect of Western leftists who romanticise the Mao-oids, I doubt Arthur has ever set foot in Nepal, probably never met a living Nepali - and certainly he gets all his info from the internet.  Yet he parades his ignorance here like a virtue.

That the Maoists may be much less popular now shouldn't be a surprise - the hopes some saw in them have largely evaporated as their leadership turned out to be just as corrupt and incompetent in mainstream politics as the other parties. The Party leaders accumulate massive wealth & luxurious lifestyles. Now one Party faction (Baidya) is issuing death threats to another (Bhattarai).

The Maoists had a mandate from the majority of their supporters far more for reform rather than revolution - they appear to be losing even that.


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(11 JAN 2013 - 17 JAN 2013)


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