Deception is everything
in times of war
the skin of a fox
shall be my secret suit of armour.
- Nietzsche

The appointment of Surya Bahadur Thapa as the second prime minister after the October Fourth royal move doesn't resolve any of the outstanding political issues in the country. Thapa is leading just another government "of the king, by the king", and by implication, "for the king".

Vesting the executive authority in the new government doesn't indemnify the palace from its future actions. Thapa's nomination isn't a political settlement, it's yet another administrative fiat of an activist monarch. The irony is that the choice of Thapa was probably thrust upon the king, since Thapa isn't known to have been too close to King Gyanendra in the past.

In all probability, Thapa won the race due to what Newsweek senior editor Michael Hirsh calls the exercise of American power through the "imperialism of neighbors". If Nepal's imperial neighbour is unable to deliver a political miracle by way of helping resolve the Maoist insurgency, the king may once again be tempted to try another of his faithful courtiers, Badri Prasad Mandal. The latter is waiting in the wings along with other loyalists to pounce upon the failures of a leader seen to have been imposed from outside.

Unlike the natural buffoonery of Kuber Sharma or the artifice of Ramesh Nath Pandey, boorishness is not as intrinsic to Badri Prasad Mandal as it appears at first glance. For the shrewd supremo of the splinter Sadbhabana Party, an apparent lack of sophistication is his most trusted shield. He uses his rustic exterior to camouflage his unbridled political ambitions.

Mandal first proved his political mettle by humbling Nepali Congress heavyweight Shailaja Acharya on her home turf, in the traditional Koirala stronghold of Morang. Narayanhiti appears to have taken due note of Mandal's remarkable exploit.

His antics as a junior minister during the Panchayat, when he was alleged to have molested a nurse at Bir Hospital, were soon overshadowed by Mandal's claims to represent the political interests of madhesis. When the time came to find the first-ever deputy prime minister from the tarai, the choice for the king was clear.

Mandal subsequently justified his selection by successfully organising the first public reception for the king in Biratnagar in January. All that the leaders of Nepali Congress and UML parties could do after that was fret and fume. By rallying the masses in the name of the king, Mandal exposed the hollowness of their claims of holding sway in the tarai.

He then went ahead and appropriated the political legacy of late Gajendra Narayan Singh by splitting the Sadbhabana, and his continuing influence inside the palace bureaucracy was on full display again last Friday. Sher Bahadur Deuba got invited to the 30 May meet of mainstream political parties at the palace, but Anandi Devi wasn't extended the same courtesy, even though the status of NC(D) isn't very different from that of SP(AD).

Mandal, the smooth-operator then used realpolitik to oust Col Narayan Singh Pun from centre-stage of the government-Maoist talks. After Mandal began leading the negotiations from the government side, the profile of Maoist convenor Baburam Bhattarai went down several notches.

Mandal once again came in handy when the Royal Nepali Army brass decided to deny that the movements of its men had been confined to a 5 km perimeter of barracks. After this fiasco, any self-respecting individual in Mandal's position would have resigned to save face. But all Mandal did was grin and pretend nothing happened. It isn't at all surprising that royalty values the loyalty of such a malleable madhesi.

The half-hour Mandal harangue at Narayanhiti on Friday evening irritated Koirala no end, but it's very unlikely that Mandal was doing this in the presence of the king and the crown prince all on his own. As a street-smart survivor, Mandal knows how to unfurl his sails in the direction of the prevailing wind.

As home minister Mandal would probably have to share part of the blame for agreeing to confer Nepali citizenship on a proportion of Bhutanese refugees. But here again, the responsibility for that historic blunder is likely to be shouldered by the technocrat foreign minister Narendra Bikram Shah.

Whatever face the dice of power may show for the moment, after the political charade at the Narayanhiti Palace last Friday, Mandal may have become our own teflon man. The chances of royalist Badri Mandal as PM-in-waiting looks brighter than ever. He would face very few challengers since it would be politically suicidal for tarai-based leaders like Koirala and Nepal to oppose the candidature of a determined madhesi. So what if he mashed a nurse 20 years ago?

Mandal is the trump card up Narayanhiti's sleeves to counter the Girija-Madhab combine. And despite questions of protocol the Maoists would prefer a royalist on the saddle to a fellow traveller comrade for now.

As long as prime ministers are chosen from among many petitioners, Mandal will remain a serious contender for the leadership of the country. Only a concerted campaign against him can turn Mandal into a fall guy. If he is retained by Thapa as his deputy (with mainstream political parties bent upon boycotting the new cabinet as well, this is a strong possibility), Mandal will remain in the race for the top job and is the man to watch.