There are only two ways to go from here: tighten up or loosen off. Which path will the architects of absolutism take?

All indications are that the hardline clique that is dictating policy is pushing the king to tighten up and take care of the unfinished business of February First. The royal takeover was supposed to be designed to crush the insurgency. It has been used to crush democracy instead.

Recent orchestrated public threats against civil society, political parties and the media aren't even veiled anymore. Royal nominees in the districts are beating up administrators, intimidating and arresting journalists. Shady front organisations that serve as apologists for the royal right are resorting to McCarthyite ultranationalism. State-run media has descended to gutterspeak against proponents of democracy. The new chief secretary is wagging his forefinger ominously at the civil service and warning it to be loyal or else.

We haven't yet heard the Maoists being criticised in as harsh terms. Caught off-guard by the rebel ceasefire the regime hasn't even shown the maturity to respond fittingly. And in the countryside all this half-hearted ceasefire has meant is that the Maoists have temporarily suspended killing combatants. But their harassment, extortion and abduction of non-combatants, including children, continue unabated.

Now, a politically-incorrect vice-chairman has broken his puzzling silence to lash out at the 1990 constitution, saying it is a hindrance to silencing dissent and gagging the media. Whatever one may say about Tulsi Giri, he isn't someone who just shoots his mouth off. His impatience with the present "neither duck nor chicken" regime is well-known, but what is intriguing is the timing of his outburst. Giri has in the past advocated banning political parties altogether and has argued with palace moderates about it. He has told diplomats: "The king believes in the parties, I don't."

The Biratnagar speech transcribed opposite could be an ominous sign that royal hardliners are preparing to get rid of the last ragged remnants of the 1990 People's Movement: the constitution. Giri's argument is: the king bestowed upon us the constitution and he can change it. This is so 1960.

A crisis is an opportunity only for those who can handle it with sensitivity. Loosening up is the only way to go.The political parties must extricate themselves from a dead end agitation to offer the king a face-saving way to backtrack. Such a move could still rescue the Nepali monarchy from imminent irrelevance, it could pave the way to a tripartite agreement on peace and justice and lead to a restoration of democracy and civil liberties.
Any delay will make these three options moot, prolong the conflict and push Nepal to kingdom come.