This being his second time in Baluwatar, Sher Bahadur Deuba does not need a political honeymoon period. Nor should he expect one. But he could take a pointer or two from the fate of other second-time prime ministers in our region: how they came to grief because they never learnt from the mistakes of their first term in office.

We know from his last 18-month stint that Deuba sways with the wind and he has elastic morals when it comes to political survival. But what he has shown is plenty of down-to-earth common sense. He speaks from the heart, and he has always been sincere about his commitment to resolve the country's number one crisis: the present problem of the Prachanda Path. With Deuba, unlike his aloof and crafty predecessor, what you see is what you get.

But will these qualities be enough for The Lion of the Far-west to tackle the formidable hurdles in coming to grips with the Maoist Tiger? As soon as he assumed office, Deuba said his priority was going to be resolving the insurgency. The Maoists immediately rewarded him by slaughtering 17 policemen in Bajura on
Monday night.

But there is now a glimmer of hope. The temporary truce announced almost simultaneously by Deuba and Prachanda appears to be the result of behind-the-scene contacts. Even the fact that the channels of communications are open is a good sign in these dismal times. The question now is: are both sides sincere or is this a tactic to buy time and regroup? Certainly, the Maoists need to re-think their strategy after the army went into Rolpa, the renewal of their palace links, and they need time to gauge how Deuba behaves. They also need to access better firepower to take on the army at a future date. The government, for its part, needs time to settle down to figure out how to handle the army and to build a political consensus.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the final straw that led to Koirala's resignation last week was his difference of opinion with King Gyanendra over the army deployment in Rolpa. After the palace massacre the army chief came out and said palace security was not the army's job, in Rolpa the army has refused to engage. Nepal's civilian leaders, however discredited and divided they may be, therefore have reason to ask why the exchequer should pay for the upkeep of a military that doesn't do its bidding. Our officer corps is second to none in the world, our soldiers have excellent rapport and reputation with the people, but sooner or later someone is going to ask the army brass and the King as supreme commander: why is the army keeping the peace in Sierra Leone when it should be keeping the peace in Sallyan?

It would be logical for the sharp strategists of the Maobadis to now target the army's morale and reputation. The government is compromised by its own incompetence, the opposition of Madhav Kumar Nepal wallows in opportunism, the image of the monarchy is tarnished with the royal massacre, and the police stopped mattering long ago. It is the army that is the only national institution that will ultimately block Prachanda's path. In Rolpa, the army came very close to exposing its vulnerability and the reason was the same old duality of command that haunted Koirala during his tenure: does the army take its orders from the king or from the prime minister? The country can no more afford a situation where if the army is successful the palace gets the credit, and if it fails the government gets the blame. The military cannot be made a pawn in this power struggle between the durbars.

Prime Minister Deuba has to come to terms with this question as he tries to lure the Maoists to the table. He will also realise that the insurgency has grown phenomenally and spread nationwide since it started while he was last in power. His advantage is that last year he headed a high-power committee set up to find ways to resolve the crisis. He must immediately announce confidence-building measures to show the people that his government means business in delivering development. And he must give those in the Maoist movement who seek a safe landing the opportunity to opt out of the spiral of violence that is engulfing the country.