The Maoists are still able to set off big bangs in the capital, and assassinate people they don't like, but times are getting tougher for the rebels.
The Maoists faced an unprecedented barrage of criticism from Nepali and international human rights organizations and political parties for the murder of peace activist Ganesh Chiluwal on Sunday. The leadership appears to be taken aback by the extent and tone of condemnation and the rebels are in damage control mode.
After the morale-hitting extradition of two top leaders from India earlier this month, the Maoists appear to be reassessing their strategy. Student leaders have called off a five-day banda scheduled for next week, saying they empathise with the people's hardships.
However, this week, several district level cadres from the UML, Nepali Congress and RPP have been gunned down in various parts of the country. The Maoists had pledged that they wouldn't target political parties and this has cast doubts on their credibility. The latest killings are bound to further widen the gap between the parties and the Maoists.
Meanwhile, civilian casualties caused by Maoist booby traps are on the rise. Even if these attacks were not deliberate, the end result is that at least ten civilians have been killed this week alone by carelessly laid Maoist roadside bombs, grenades and socket devices in Kabhre, Jhapa and Surkhet.
There have also been civilian casualties at the hands of the army: in the latest incidents, soldiers gunned down three youngsters collecting roadside donations on Shivaratri in Chitwan.
The Maoist campaign of sabotage and assassinations in the capital come as King Gyanendra himself continues his whirlwind tour of the Maoist heartland. In what is obviously the palace's new public relations drive, television news have been showing the people spontaneously greeting the monarch in areas the Maoists regard as their dens.
In an interview with the BBC Nepali Service from somewhere in India, Maoist spokesman Krishna Bahadur Mahara this week took a softer line than usual, but insisted that the republic demand was still on: "We are prepared to accept a democratic and multi-party republic."
The Maoist attacks in the Valley have been carried out by a brand new 'Valley Team' headed by senior guerrilla leader Top Bahadur Rayamajhi. The previous rebel cells were decimated by army intelligence late last year in an operation that also yielded a large quantity of weapons and explosives. The Maoists blamed captured cadre who gave away information on hideouts, safe houses and secret arms caches in the capital.
The five-party alliance, still smarting from the king's blunt rebukes against them in the Nepalganj address, used Democracy Day on Thursday to relaunch their agitation, announcing a new phase of protests to force the king to restore parliament. Party demonstrators at Ratna Park on Wednesday were instructed to keep their anti-monarchy slogans mild and not to provoke violence. However, some students immediately began chanting pro-republic slogans and demanded a more radical line.