As Nepal's tri-polar power struggle remains deadlocked, the three main outside powers are increasingly worried about its outcome. In its feeble state, Kathmandu is more susceptible to outside pressure than ever before, and post-9/11 convergence of US, Indian and Chinese interest in the region has changed the nature of that influence.

Nepal's two neighbours and the global power are worried about the possibility of a Maoist victory and the inability of constitutional forces in Nepal to unite against it. Their styles may differ and there may be some irritants, but the US, India and China no longer seem to be working at cross purposes.

Analysts see India's arrest of senior Maoists as a result of Anglo-US insistence that it do more. The Chinese have disavowed any support for 'anti-government rebels' here. Nepali and US militaries have held joint night exercises for the first time involving terrain-hugging EC-130 surveillance aircraft, apparently with Indian and Chinese concurrence.


A senior Indian official confirmed regular consultations between Washington, Beijing and New Delhi about Nepal, adding: "Our bottom line is that instability in Nepal will harm our national interest and there is a danger of spillover of the Maoist revolution."

But within Nepal, distrust of Big Brother still runs deep. Some believe New Delhi has used the insurgency to wrest concessions from Nepal. "It has been proven time and again that India takes advantage of instability here," says foreign affairs analyst Hiranya Lal Shrestha, citing recent bilateral talks on transport, hydropower and security preceding Indian arrest of senior Maoists.

Foreign Minister Bhekh Bahadur Thapa, who served as ambassador in New Delhi for six years denies Nepal has sold out to India in return for a get-tough policy on Maoists. "There is nothing brewing behind the scenes," he says.

Indian officials also deny a correlation. "We are blamed when nothing moves, and we are blamed when we make progress," Indian ambassador Shyam Saran has said. India also denies recent crackdowns against Maoists in India is new. "Our policy on terrorist activities of Nepali Maoists and support for the Nepal government has always been consistent and clear," says Indian Embassy First Secretary Sanjay Verma. Indeed, Indian military support in training and hardware to the Royal Nepali Army far exceeds anything the Americans or the British have given so far.

Pradip Giri of the Nepali Congress (D) says xenophobic rulers in Kathmandu are so used to exaggerating Indian and Chinese omnipresence that they believe their own myths. "India is a factor, we should acknowledge that," he said in a tv interview this week. "Indian support is a necessary, but not sufficient condition, for resolving the Maoist issue."

India, the US and Britain have divided up the work of forging a palace-party rapprochement. So far this year, India has issued three statements strongly advocating that the king and parties patch up. The Chinese probably agree, but steadfastly refuse to talk. Chinese ambassador Sun Heping told a press meet recently: "We never comment on the internal affairs of another country."

The Maoist strategy has been to try to drive a wedge between the US against India and China by stoking fears of superpower adventurism in their backyard. While there may still be cold warriors in the corridors of power in Beijing and New Delhi who are suspicious of US intentions vis-?-vis Nepal, it is clear that regional geopolitics has moved on.

(Reporting by Navin Singh Khadka)