At face value, Surya Bahadur Thapa's government appears to be in deeper soup than his predecessor Lokendra Bahadur Chand's. The NC and the UML not only spurned the offer to join his cabinet, but say they will continue their street agitation.

Within the RPP itself, Pashupati SJB Rana is angry because Thapa has not included his men in the new cabinet. Thapa also faces potential threats from the Maoists and a conglomerate of smaller leftist parties. If Thapa is surrounded, how come he exudes so much confidence?

The seasoned politician is playing it cool, confident that kangresis will join his cabinet after an incubation period. The bait: a temporary reinstatement of parliament or elections. That is why Thapa has kept key portfolios to himself. "He knows the kangresis will come to him soon enough, and he'll need to dangle those posts," said one Thapa loyalist.

What gives Thapa flexibility vis-?-vis the NC is the disenchantment of second-generation kangresis with the leadership. Shailaja Acharya has been against the agitation led by her uncle, Girija Koirala, and other relatively-young turks seem to be siding with her. Even Koirala (undergoing a routine health check in Dharan) has privately hinted that the party will join Thapa if the parliament is reinstated.

If that happens, the UML will have been left in a lurch since a NC-RPP combine will muster a majority in a reconvened house. Ideally, there could then be a new all-party negotiating team with the Maoists and a government to oversee future elections.

From the point of view of some kangresis, this will then roll back the king's October Fourth move, and the king will have a face-saving way to break this six-month deadlock. Meanwhile, the politicians from the five-party alliance remain deeply suspicious of Thapa and doubt his intention of reinstating parliament.