It's now getting on to 25 days since the royal proclamation. Far be it for us to say how things have been in that period. Even if we knew, we couldn't tell you. There will be those entrusted with the duty of providing security and ensuring development who are much more clued in.
Our correspondent who roved the highways from east to west (see Road closed) this week describes an immobilised nation. Tens of thousands of people are stranded for weeks in highway towns, villagers are forced to walk ancient disused trails across the mountains, pedal rickshaws are plying cross-country along empty highways.
It is clear that the rebels have now gone beyond caring about public opinion. Their actions point to total indifference to what the people think about them and their revolution: setting fire to ambulances, opening fire on bus passengers and snipers shooting at anything that moves. Turning into what they consider the last lap, they are choking off the towns to spread panic and frustration so as to prove things aren't better for the people post-Feburary First.
But the next uprising may very well be against them. Dailekh in December and Kapilbastu last week showed what can happen by neglecting public opinion and perpetrating atrocities. The people always know who their tormentors are, sooner or later they will not be able to stand it any longer and will rise up.
For now, the Maoist leadership is sitting back and watching Kathmandu stew. And they pat themselves on their backs reading the international reaction to the king's move and the British announcement of an arms embargo. Things are going pretty much according to plan for them.
We will have to wait and see how long the patience of Nepal's urban dwellers will hold out. But we expect the comrades are astute enough to realise that there is no military solution to this conflict and it could drag on for years, if not decades. Are they willing, can they hold on, till then? Will the internal dynamics of the party keep it cohesive for that long? And if what we see and hear today is the reaction to a return to authoritarianism, imagine the international outrage that will greet totalitarianism.
Improbable as it may seem, February First has actually given the rebels an opportunity to join the political mainstream. In his reaction, Prachanda himself called for solidarity with the political parties and civil society. But he should know it won't happen until his party renounces violence. The political parties may have messed things up, but they are still the only entities that don't owe their survival to the barrel of a gun. This is the time for all forces that want social change to unitedly address the structural problems in the polity to ensure long-term peace and development. It's still not too late for parliamentary democracy and a progressive, enlightened monarchy to co-exist and take us there together.