There are only two positive things that could possibly come out of the unimaginable horror of the Kashmir earthquake of 8 October.

One is that India and Pakistan see the futility of further conflict in that disputed region with nature's mockery of man-made boundaries. Despite easing travel restrictions and allowing phone calls, however, it may have been too much to expect the generals on both sides to overcomes decades of hatred that they have nurtured against each others' peoples.

The second constructive outcome could be that we in Nepal and elsewhere along the Himalaya learn lessons in disaster preparedness, earthquake resistant housing and infrastructure, strict zoning in urban areas, and forward planning for rescue and relief. But even here, it is unlikely that the government and people of Nepal have heeded the warning.

We had our own wake-up call on the afternoon of 15 January 1934 when at least 10,000 people were killed in a few minutes. At that time, the population of the Kathmandu Valley may have been 150,000. Today, it is two million. Even without taking into account the higher death toll due to unsafe concrete housing, if the same proportion of people were killed in the next quake as in 1934 Kathmandu would suffer at least 200,000 deaths.

Historical records show that Central Nepal witnesses a major 8 magnitude earthquake every 75 years or so, which would mean another Big One is due any day. But more frightening is the seismic gap between Dehradun and Pokhara, where there hasn't been a major earthquake for at lest 400 years and where there is enough energy stored in the colliding tectonic plates to unleash one of a magnitude of 9 or more any day. What that would do to Pokhara, Butwal, Nepalganj, Surkhet and Kathmandu would be a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.

We can't prevent earthquakes, we can't even predict them. Earthquakes don't kill people, weak houses and bad planning do. It may be asking too much to expect a government that can't even solve minor problems of food supply, health care and education to prepare for a future calamity. But it may just take something like Kashmir to warn us of what is certain to happen in Kathmandu very soon. It's not if but when.

Even if we can't save those crushed to death under buildings, how are we going to rescue those trapped? Have we talked to neighbouring countries and foreign governments for overflight rights for rescue planes because we have seen in Pakistan how red tape can delay rescue. What are we going to do if the Prithibi Highway is blocked and the airport runway is damaged?

Nepal is further ahead than most South Asian countries in earthquake awareness work and retrofitting technology. Our experts have gone to Bam in Iran and Gujarat to share their knowhow. Patan's Ward 17 and Kathmandu's Ward 34 are models for community preparedness for earthquakes.

All we need to do is replicate these on a national scale for a day that will surely come.