NASA |
If ever there was a warning about the shape of things to come, none would be more portentous than the heinous act of terrorism in Janakpur on Tuesday. Four activists demonstrating peacefully for the recognition of Mithila identity were killed, supposedly by a Madhesi militant group.
The Far West of Nepal, one-fourth of the country, has been completely shut down now for a week in a double-barrelled strike by those for and against the far-western Tarai being a part of Tharuhat. The Tharus are also on a collision course with the Madhesis.
Elsewhere in the country, with only three weeks to go for the constitution deadline, there is an ominous sense of foreboding about the way we are headed. The Limbus are rising up against the Rais, the Newars and Tamang disagree on boundaries, as do Magars and Gurungs. Janakpur showed us what can happen if ethnicities compete over proposed provinces using terror and violence.
In the tinder dry terrain of Nepal's political summer, the conditions are right for a blaze that could rapidly engulf the whole country. We are not panic-mongering, or crying wolf. The younger leadership within the four political forces look on helplessly as their seniors steer the country towards disaster. This was summed up eloquently and succinctly in a short post in English by the NC's Gagan Thapa on his Facebook page on Wednesday: 'Trying hard, but things are getting worse.'
CA chairman Subhas Nembang had a message for the political leaders he summoned to his chamber on Tuesday. This is the time to show some statesmanship, he said, to rise above your personal and partisan ambitions, to save the country from possible disintegration. But everyday we see new proof of the main political actors not being able to stand up to ethnic blackmail by powerful satraps. Others are actively using the ethnic and regional card to settle political scores, and for electoral advantage in future -- the country be damned.
You don't have to be a serial op-ed writer to see that carving up the country into states named after ethnic groups will not address historical marginalisation, but fracture the country along ethnic faultlines. None of the models proposed so far will make all ethnic groups happy, everyone will feel shortchanged.
Fortunately, just in the nick of time, saner minds and cooler heads have prevailed. Brokered closely by India, a deal has been worked out for a unity government paving the way for a NC-led government by 27 May. But even if there is a consensus government, how does that guarantee a consensus on the contentious clauses in the constitution? In fact, a ministerial reshuffle will unleash the usual haggling over portfolios and distract everyone's attention from the urgent task of writing a least harmful constitution. If the past is any guide, there will be a singular lack of statesmanship during the give-and-take of government formation.
The political leaders who ultimately should be concerned about national unity and long-term stability are being swayed by non-government pressure groups aided and abetted in the past by Nepal-based internationals in the name of equalising opportunity. It has now gone beyond the ability of the politicians to control cross-party divisionists in their ranks.
These sensitive and volatile issues should have been debated and sorted out in the last three years. But the leaders, in their infinite wisdom, have left the most intractable aspects of the constitution till the last three weeks. You can't order federalism express delivery.
Democracy and national unity are absolutes. You can't be half-democratic, or half-united. If the Indian partition proved anything it is that populist appeasement and short-term political expediency invite long-term disaster.
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