If the first week of the extended CA is anything to go by, the prospects don't look promising in building a consensus ahead of the 31 August.
The Special Committee looking at the decommissioning of Maoist camps has made progress, but there are still issues of fighter numbers, rehabilitation package etc to be worked out. Already, we are a week behind schedule on an agreement on consolidating fighters in main camps for individual classification. As with the deadlock in power-sharing, the problem is not so much between the NC and the Maoists, but how much the Maoist leadership can push the envelope on integration without a backlash from hardliners who equate demobilisation with surrender. To be sure, the NC is also wracked by deep idealistic divide between conservatives and liberals.
In limbo is the deal on the prime minister stepping down. Jhal Nath Khanal is resigned to not resigning. This is a perfect replay of last summer when Madhav Nepal remained caretaker for seven months after agreeing to step down. It has now become a chicken-or-egg: decommissioning before resignation, or the other way around.
Boiled down to its essence, what we have here is an epic battle of ideas between whether Nepal should follow universally-recognised values of freedom and democracy, or be guided by a totalitarian mindset. There are sub-plots within this struggle that are making things complicated, which include the ambition and greed that feed the rivalries within all four main parties that hinder a power-sharing deal.
Still, we shouldn't take our gaze away from the goal: the transformation of the Maoist party into one that does not rely on violence to do politics, and joins mainstream competitive politics. The actions of the Maoist party in power and in opposition since 2008 prove that it wants to have it both ways.
In the coming days, agreements on power-sharing and disarming the Maoists would help, but the draft constitution can't wait and work on it should run in parallel. There are certain non-negotiables: we don't just want a new constitution, we want one that is more democratic and an improvement on the 1990 one. Otherwise what was the point, right? Just look at the provisions of the new state structure that the Maoists want in the draft constitution: a powerful executive president, a legislature with a toothless opposition that the judiciary will be beholden to. Their regressive model seems to be the North Korean definition of 'people's democracy'. Which is why the reluctance of our foreign friends to back a "democratic" constitution is so surprising, they still haven't seen through the Maoist euphemism of an "inclusive" constitution.
The NC's ten conditions for the extension of the CA shows us the way out. They summarise the essential points of a truly democratic constitution. The only trouble is that the ten commandments come from a political party that has little moral authority left to be setting conditions because of its past governance failures and lack of accountability.
For their part, the Maoists in the past three years have mislead, lied and broken promises on demobilisation. The conclusion is that Pushpa Kamal Dahal is either incapable or unwilling to dismantle his fighting force. It is time to call his bluff. Let's not waste time haggling over the composition of the next government, but delink day-to-day governance and development from the broader negotiations over peace and the constitution.
In the 11 weeks ahead, the priority must be to dismantle the camps, forge a government of national unity and work on the sticking points in the constitution without compromising on basic democratic norms.
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Work in progress
See also:
Film by the UN's humanitarian division on Nepal's current deadlock.