The midnight hour - Nepali Times

Headline
The midnight hour

FROM ISSUE #555 (27 MAY 2011 - 02 JUNE 2011) | TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUBSCRIBE NT

REFER

WRITE TO EDITOR

SUBHAS RAI

As the country reaches another constitutional crossroads, it is being paralysed by a buildup of bandas. The governance failure of the fractious parties has prompted any pressure group with a gripe to call a nationwide shutdown and get away with it.

But as we approach the stroke of the midnight hour on Saturday, the nation waits, not with a sense of hope, but dread. Nepal is a dictatorship of three parties, and although they may fight tooth and nail for power, on extending the CA their interests converge. The NC is playing hard to get on extra time only because its leaders want a berth in a new coalition.

"While the Congress stands by its 10-point proposal for extension, we will not allow the nation to slip into a void on Saturday," NC CA member GaganThapa told Nepali Times.

At first glance, the CA may seem divided between the NC-Madhesi parties and the Maoist-UML alliance, but look closer and they have all made up their minds to vote for a last-minute extension. However, there is a cluster of ultra-radical and right-wing forces, marginalised since 2006, which are against the extension because they would benefit from the resulting political vacuum.

But between the public sabre-rattling, you can see these are the same old faces in the same old parties, bargaining for the same old portfolios. They will really need to convince the people that they deserve another extension.

Anurag Acharya

Read also:
Point of no return, PROF. KRISHNA KHANAL
Feeling crabby?, RABI THAPA
The games they play, ANURAG ACHARYA

1. Arthur
More truth than one usually finds in an NT editorial!

What I find amazing is why Congress imagines it has some bargaining power by threatening to force CA elections when the Maoists made it quite clear they were prepared to do that a year ago.

Do they think they are in a better position to prevent such elections actually being held and maintain a government of "prominents" than they were a year ago?

Do they imagine they would do better at elections than they did three years ago?

Or are they just stupid?

Usually I prefer to assume some rational (even if condemnable) motive behind political postures even when such positions look irrational.

But in this case I suspect it really is just stupid Kangresi posturing.

BTW, even if "midnite" means 6am in Nepal the real crunch seems more likely to come at the end of another 6 months of Kangresi posturing since they can be forced to continue making idiots of themselves for that long by a simple majority vote.

Posted on: 27 MAY 2011 | 1:59 PM NST

2. jange

They will really need to convince the people that they deserve another extension.

No they don't. They can go ahead with the extension without convincing anyone but themselves.

Posted on: 27 MAY 2011 | 5:16 PM NST

3. cheli
Yes I totally agree with jange.. They don't deserve at all..

Posted on: 29 MAY 2011 | 12:34 PM NST

4. rishav

As predicited a 12th hour (rather than 11th hour) deal was made.

Paid work for the 601 useless CA members for another 3-6 months on a dubious legal basis which they are making up as they go along. What the hell, we might as well extend for 10 years, without a further peoples mandate as these idiots can do what they want.

So a delay in the inevitable outcome to save face for the failures of the 601 most useless CA members. Don't worry I'm sure these events will reoccur again on the final day of the CA be it in 3 or 6 months time.

The 5 point deal between the 3 major parties, again a bunch of verbal agreements and no physical actions.

The Maoist, to get rid of their dual security, accept only 5-6,000 PLA Guerrillas to be absorbed into the Nepal Army on an individual basis. Hand the keys to their weapons over to the Army intergration commitee. The PM to step down(?right away) to pathe way to a National consensus Government, Nepal Army to look to recriut in 10,000 Madhesi ethnic groups, so therefore becoming more ?inclusive. A Draft of the constitution to be written all to be done in 3 months time fo the first phase of the extension.

I doubt any of these agreements will come to reality and we will be left in the same situation in 3 months time. I do like the idea of recruiting the Madhesi ethnic groups, which has always been difficult for the Nepal Army to recruit from, and only recently did the Nepal Army reduce the physical exam requirements for those of Madhesi background, to encourage them into the Nepal Army and as result has already started to increase it's intake from these ethnic group. However, group block entry into the Nepal Army by people based on their Political views is definately a No No!, So the Maoist PLA must be totally detached from their PLA structure(an affective AISC) first and if they wish to join the Nepal Army, as like any citizen of Nepal can do so on the same individual requirements.

Posted on: 29 MAY 2011 | 4:57 PM NST

5. Arthur
rishav #4,

"The Maoist, to get rid of their dual security, accept only 5-6,000 PLA Guerrillas to be absorbed into the Nepal Army on an individual basis. Hand the keys to their weapons over to the Army intergration commitee. The PM to step down(?right away) to pathe way to a National consensus Government Nepal Army to look to recriut in 10,000 Madhesi ethnic groups, so therefore becoming more ?inclusive."

These things were mentioned in various proposals and news reports but NONE of them are in the 5 points agreement.

PM resignation was specifically not "right away" but only to pave way for a national consensus government. No mention of "10,000" Madheshi recruits. Nothing at all said about numbers or basis of integration of PLA or weapons handover or entrusting security of Maoist leaders to only NA guards.

Here are the five points as a reminder that Congress got ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for their waste of 3 years in previously refusing to accept participation in a national consensus government with Maoists, any integration of PLA at all, and any constitution unless PLA surrenders:

1. Major issues of the Peace process will be completed in three months.

2. Preliminary draft of the Constitution will be brought in three months.

3. The Nepal Army shall be made an inclusive one and all agreements signed with the Madhesi Alliance will be implemented.

4. The CA tenure will be extended by three months.

5. The Prime Minister will tender his resignation to pave way for politics of consensus.

"I doubt any of these agreements will come to reality and we will be left in the same situation in 3 months time."

Perhaps that is also true of the actual agreement as above.

But even rishav doesn't oppose point 3, so it would not be surprising if the NA accepts it and it is implemented.

There doesn't seem to be much point in Congress having made so much effort to disguise their acceptance of participation in a national consensus government with Maoists by "demanding" point 5 if they still intend to refuse.

Once there is such a consensus government it is at least possible to imagine points 1 and 2 also happening.

By "demanding" only 5-6000 PLA be integrated, Congress has at least stopped insisting that none be integrated.

By agreeing on all but a couple of dozen issues for a draft Constitution, Congress has also lost most of its excuses for further delay on that. Repeating acceptance of Madheshi agreements thoroughly undermines their blockage of federalism.

The results do reflect the complete lack of bargaining strength which Nepali Times warned Congress about.

Then again, Congress really are incredibly stupid, so they may risk a repeat performance and find themselves facing a CA election after another 3 months - with full responsibility for the failure to complete the peace process and adopt a Constitution despite all their promises in election and now.

Whatever happens these brilliant anti-Maoist tactics have ensured that everyone will recognize Maoists preferred to complete peace process and constitution (together) rather than have a confrontation with CA dissolved. So in any future confrontation anti-Maoists will be blamed for wanting the confrontation.

Posted on: 29 MAY 2011 | 8:59 PM NST

6. rishav
Reply #5 Reply to Moron who calls himself Arthur.

Oh God not your annoying rambling Maoist loving spewel.

I believe Interpretation of these 5 points, still rather vague, and by all the 3 major parties are all quite different, unfortunately your not able to understand or read Nepali therefore you won't be able undersatnd what the leaders have said after the 12th+ hour since the agreement.

But here are some englsih ones Ram Chandra Poudel in Nepalnews

"However, Nepali Congress vice president and parliamentary party leader Ram Chandra Paudel said, the PM should resign immediately and make way for the new government.

The remaining tasks of the peace process will be completed by the new Prime Minister, he said.

Stating that as per the spirit of the five-point deal the Maoists will have to transfer all their weapons to the state within three months, Paudel said that there has been agreement to integrate upto 5,000 Maoist combatants into Nepal Army."

and also CPN-UML Bidya Bhandari, in kantupronline "CPN-UML Vice Chairman Bidhya Devi Bhandari said on Monday that Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal must immediately resign as per the five-point agreement."

PM khanal said in Nepalitimes, "Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal told reporters after coming out of the House sitting today morning that he will resign only when a national unity government is ready," Supposedly backed by Maoist leaders.

If there is already misinterpretation amongst the top leaders is there any chance of an agreement in 3 months for the peace process. I don't think so.

I do agree, that the NC backed down on the 12th hour , as I have already predicted, and have previously mentioned how spineless they are. The resulting 5 points produced are a bit vague, open to interpretations as can be seen by all the political leaders above. Ultimately it doesn't matter how you or I interpret the agreement in a certain way, it is upto the 601 demi-Gods and how they interpet it which is most important of all.

The sad things is that the major political issues with serious long term consequences which could turn our country into a possible Bosnia, is not at all popular by the people of this nation. Even now, there has started to be ethnic tensions, more overt than I have ever seen or felt before. So the scary thing is that the Maoists may actually bull doze through ethnic based federlaism and even ferderalism in itself which is not popular by us Nepali's and now the people have finally started to become more vocal against it. Will the Maoists listen, I guess not but what will happen at the end of the three months will be interesting. NC might actually develop some balls but untill then the Maoists have got everything they wanted without denouncing violence and holding onto all the cards.

Posted on: 30 MAY 2011 | 3:22 PM NST

7. Arthur
rishav #5, an agreement is a single set of statements adopted by each of the parties that agree to it.

A statement or "interpretation" about an agreement by Ram Chandra Poudel or Bidya Bhandari or anyone else is not an agreement.

I provided in #5 the english text of the exact 5 point agreement that was actually AGREED and a link to the source from which you can see the Nepali text.

You say it is a "bit vague, open to interpretations".

Actually it very clearly says NOTHING AT ALL.

That is what Congress got.

Posted on: 30 MAY 2011 | 9:59 PM NST

8. rishav
Reply#7,

It's an AGREEMENT, O'GOSH and I thought it was the word of GOD delivered by Moses.

Actually the 5 point agreement does say something but JUST NOT THAT MUCH! However what ever is said is so generalised and nonspecific it is so open to many different interpretations of it's meaning and implementations as quite clearly seen in #6

Your missing the major point clearly here.. The interpretations to the same 5 point agreemnet by our 601 demi-Gods, is the most important thing of all, as they are the ones who will write the constitution, and going by their statements in #6, these statements clearly shows a difference in their interpretations and implementation of this very vague, non specific agreement. After all it is these 601 demi-Gods who will create the constitution and if they are not all singing from the same hym book were going to have a repeat 12am deadline in 3 months time.

At the end of the day this what the Maoists got for not denouncing violence, not handing over their weapons to the AISC and not turning into a civilian party. At the cost of so many thousands of lives.

I realise I'm not the only one who has concerns about the vagueness of the 5 point deal, going by your Comrade in Kantipuronline, "UCPN (Maoist) leader Dev Gurung said on Monday that the 5-point deal inked at the Legislature-Parliament for the extension of the Constituent Assembly (CA)'s term is facing difficulties in implementation." "Claiming that the basis of the agreement is obscure in nature,"

And I don't think the issue ends there in the Maoist camp, also in Kantipur "A day after three major parties averted political and constitutional crisis by extending the Constituent Assembly tenure, the hardliner faction of UCPN (Maoist) led by Vice Chairman Mohan Baidya disowned the five-point agreement, the mantra that led to the extension."

I guess 12am in 3 months time is a likely bet after all..

Posted on: 01 JUNE 2011 | 5:14 AM NST

9. Arthur
Its very simple.

If the anti-Maoists want to go back to war with the Maoists they still can. Simply let the CA dissolve and prevent fresh elections through military rule.

NC knows that won't be any good for them. They tried to look fierce but their shouting and demands ended up looking just like Rishav shouting and making demands. They know that they are in a very weak position even if Rishav does not even know that much.

They can keep on obstructing if they wish. They can keep shouting that the PLA must surrender or they won't agree to anything. But then they would just be in the same weak position in 3 months time or in an even weaker position. They know it and now EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT THEY KNOW IT.

Or they can stop obstructing and actually join in a national consensus government to draft a constitution and finalize the peace agreement together. In that case they will go into the following elections as one of the three parties that jointly completed the peace process as they agreed to do.

They cannot prevent a new Nepal by demanding that the Maoists give up the PLA without having completed integration of the two armies and achieving a Constitution.

They now know it and EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT THEY KNOW IT.

There is no real change. The fact that everybody now knows that NC now knows what a weak position they are in does not change much. The Maoists will not gloat and go back on what they have already agreed many times. It is still important to for the Maoists to include Congress in a consensus for moving forward. So they will still welcome participation of Congress in a national consensus government just as they did in the original peace agreement and when Congress refused to join the Prachanda government.

What may change is that now Congress might now join a national consensus government after having wasted all these years in refusing.

I hope they do, but I can't make predictions about what they will do. Predictions require predictability which requires there be some rationality in the decision making process.

Every editorial including Nepali Times warned Congress that they were making fools of themselves by making ridiculous demands like disarming the PLA before integration and threats to dissolve the CA which they would not dare carry out. But they were so irrational that they just went ahead and made fools of themselves exactly as though they had not been warned,

So I won't try to guess what such unpredictably stupid people will do next.

Posted on: 01 JUNE 2011 | 8:18 PM NST

10. rishav
Reply #9, Oh Dear, O'dear. I guess it must be your time of the month, no need to get your knickers in a twist.

I guess one exposed your weakness in understanding Nepali politics and the Nepali people. Predictions show a good insight knowledge and analysis on how events will proceed, it also puts your money where your mouth is. Otherwise your just a persons who just talks a supposed good game but just can't deliver on the field of play. All your predictions and comments so far on this site has been weak and poor quality in regard to your understanding of Nepali affairs. But instead of being humble in your ignorance you choose to be confrontational when you can't explain events/topics or unable to reply back appropitately when challenged and found out.

Here is a bit of a flash from an old Nepali times issue which proves a point. It is in regard to the successful counter march against the Maoist enforced Bandh.

http://www.nepalitimes.com.np/issue/2010/04/26/PlainSpeaking/17008

Read my comment #52, a good prediction of events prior to them occuring.

Predictions - Unless PM Nepal gets cold feet and surrenders to Maoist demands and resigns the following will happen.
1. Bandh mass mobilization of Maoist Cadres with arms concealed.
2. Attempts by the Maoist in certain sections to entice the security forces for confrontation with the use of arms. If the security force can refrain from taking extreme measures it will ultimately cause more frustration in the Maoist camp as they are hoping on and even expecting a confrontation with a new list of matyrs.
3. Prachanda in the mean time will badh while dancing with numerous females on the street.
4. If the badh continues for too long the local populace will start to get frustrated as it will effect their daily lives and businesses which could potentially cause a counter march.
5. Ultimately the mobilsation like many of their previous ones will most likely be uneventful and will expose the Maoists more as not being effective from the street which they so proclaim to be.

Posted on: 28 APRIL 2010 | 5:41 PM NST

I guess you should learn something from us Nepali Gurus. I don't see you put your money where your mouth is?!!

Posted on: 02 JUNE 2011 | 5:30 AM NST

11. Arthur
Correction to #5 and #7,

When I wrote those posts I assumed that the news reports of unwritten agreements were purely inventions by Kangresi negotiators to distract attention from their complete failure to get any concessions at all.

Today's reports of ending dual security (and some other matters) show my assumption was wrong. There must have been some private undertakings to help Kangresis feel better about their failure.

That may be a good thing for encouraging Congress to move forward and join a national consensus government. (Entrusting Maoist leaders security to others without PLA is certainly a major, and perhaps dangerous, decision).

Posted on: 02 JUNE 2011 | 9:19 AM NST

12. Anil
11. Arthur

I assumed that the news reports of unwritten agreements were purely inventions by Kangresi negotiators to distract attention from their complete failure to get any concessions at all.

Why do you always make false assumptions, especially about people you know very little about?

Comrade, try using your own brain sometimes,instead of spewing out memorized Marxist texts and Maoist propaganda.

Repeating the same taped messages over and over again as an answer to every question is not the same as making a rational argument.

Posted on: 02 JUNE 2011 | 10:25 PM NST