The latest airliner crash in Nepal has underlined the danger of monsoon flying in the Himalaya. Nepali Times gathered a panel of experts on Monday to discuss Nepal's appalling aviation safety record, and to suggest remedial measures.
Participants:
Capt PJ Shah: has been flying in Nepal since the age of the DC-3s and spent 40 years as a senior captain with Royal Nepal Airlines and then Emirates. His nephew, Capt Lucky Shah, was commanding the Agni Air flight that crashed on Monday.
Hemant Arjyal: engineer, aviation analyst and a member of the Nepal National Aviation Council.
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: airline entrepreneur who was with Yeti Airlines, Lumbini Airways and Skyline, and now Air Kasthamandap. His daughter, Sarah Sherpa, was on her first flight as an Agni Air flight attendant when she was killed in Monday's accident.
Binod Kumar Gautam: Deputy Director at the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN).
Sanjiv Gautam: Head of Air Traffic Control Division, CAAN.
Hemant Arjyal: Statistically, if you look at the record since the first crash in the 1950s, you see that most accidents happened in the monsoon and most of them have been classified as Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT), which means a perfectly good plane in full control of the pilot hits a mountain in cloud. Therefore, human factors are involved. It could be that there is complacency about the dangers of mountain-flying in the monsoon season, over-confidence, and pressure on pilots to fly in bad weather from passengers or the company.
PJ Shah: The preliminary indications are that the Agni Air crash was not a CFIT, as the nature of the impact suggests the pilot was not in control of the aircraft. The crash should be a warning, but we seem not to have learnt from previous crashes. We need a complete structural overhaul of the civil aviation regulatory environment.
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: I feel like I have come full circle in the airline business with the death of my daughter. Earlier, I had lost relatives in the Thai Airbus crash in 1992. Capt Lucky was one of the most experienced pilots around, a very safety-conscious commander. I went to the airport on Monday morning and asked why the Lukla flights were allowed to take off in such bad weather. It seems there was competition among the private operators to lift out the tourists stranded in Lukla. Someone has to say enough is enough. I don't want any more Sarahs to die.
PJ Shah: There are four components to the airline business. The manufacturer, the operators, the regulator, and the travelling public. Safety has to be the primary concern for all four, and the emphasis must shift to the passengers, without whom there would be no airline business. Unfortunately, in our country the most valuable sector, the passengers, are not treated well. Only VVIPs are given importance.
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: I agree, passenger safety has to be the ultimate goal. Even after this accident there will be a committee, there will be a report and no one will really know what happened or whether remedial measures were taken. I have been involved in the search and rescue of previous crashes. In two of them, planes crashed into mountains during the monsoon, but crew conflict was a factor. You have to respect the monsoon; maybe there should be a moratorium on flying to certain airports in the monsoon.
PJ Shah: You can't change the weather. I don't think you can stop flying in the monsoon; there are periods even in August when the weather is good. Nepal is a very difficult place to fly, but there have to be methods and proper procedures. We should also discourage fusion between the regulators and the operators. They should be separate, otherwise maintenance standards will be compromised.
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: The nature of Nepal's domestic airline business and tariffs is such that it is very difficult with current CAAN rules for an investor to sustain a fleet of multi-engine aircraft. Which is why I have always been a proponent of single-engine equipment for remote airports: they are easier and cheaper to maintain and operate. The other aspect is that even a small airline with only one aircraft is required to maintain an engineering department, whereas operators with the same aircraft should be able to pool maintenance and crew. But CAAN has no such mechanism.
Binod Kumar Gautam: I think we are a long way from pooling engineering departments. Two airlines with the same Jetstream or Beechcraft equipment don't even help each other out with engine or landing gear spares.
PJ Shah: There is no point imposing more rules, we have the world's best regulations, but let's face it, there is a problem with implementing them. There is a 'who cares' attitude among airline staff. There is a culture to compromise by cutting corners on safety matters.
Hemant Arjyal: If there is a crash every monsoon, you have to plan accordingly, and learn from the previous years. When can Air Traffic Control clear a plane for takeoff, what is the trend at the destination airport? We have to maintain minimum equipment and provide for air crew training. If there is a pattern of crashes and we know the causes, we have to be prepared.
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: CAAN has to do something about search and rescue coordination. It was chaos at the airport on Monday morning.
Sanjiv Gautam: We have a search and rescue unit as per ICAO requirements, it comes into operation only when something happens. It involves the army, police and civil police. What we need is more communication equipment, maps, charts, procedures, an MoU with the army in a permanent centre at TIA. If most accidents happen in the monsoon, we need rules on visibility, established norms for monsoon flying, and better coordination among pilots, Air Traffic Control and airlines. There has to be a balance between service and safety: if we insist on safety alone, the airlines will go bankrupt.
Binod Kumar Gautam: They say the history of aviation is written in blood, and in Nepal we have to address the human factor since this is the cause in most crashes. Pilots go through three phases: first they feel invincible, then with experience they think they know everything and in the third phase they think "it will happen to someone else, not me". Cockpit dynamics and bureaucratic and peer pressure to fly in bad weather are important issues. We have a confidential reporting system now that has already yielded results.
Sanjiv Gautam: Accidents happen and we try to look for someone to blame. But the cause is always a combination of factors. There is always risk, the question is can we keep the risk at a tolerable level, minimise it, and examine and eliminate the potential contributing factors?
PJ Shah: If most accidents are human error, we have to address the what, when, where, how and why, and plan accordingly.
Binod Kumar Gautam: Our main constraints at CAAN are insufficient technical manpower for maintenance inspections and remuneration of staff. We follow ICAO procedures, but just because an aircraft has passed our certification doesn't absolve the operator from responsibility. Financial regulations for the import of spares also need to be revamped. You have to wait three days to open a Letter of Credit (LC) for an urgently needed spare part. How do you keep the plane flying in that time?
Dorji Tsering Sherpa: The hassles in getting permits and LCs for spares need to be removed. Also, the process for visas and work permits for expat personnel need to be streamlined. Over-regulation is no regulation.
Hemant Arjyal: Safety has to be a culture, not a requirement. But this can't happen overnight.
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