SOURCE: HTTP://WWW.UNCCD.INT

Nobody had anticipated a century ago that countries would enter into major wars over oil. Today, when identical predictions are made over water, the response is strikingly similar: disbelief and a general lack of concern. But experts say things are going to change. Water is going to be the most contested resource in the world in the coming years. Indian think-tank Strategic Foresight Group's The Himalayan Challenge: Water Security in Emerging Asia, warns that the four countries of the Himalayan sub-region � Nepal, India, China and Bangladesh � will have to make do with 275 billion cubic metres less water over the next 20 years.

This figure is greater than the total amount of water available in Nepal at present. But the Himalayan river basins are home to 20 per cent of the world's population. Water depletion in this region on such a scale, therefore, means serious social, economic and political repercussions worldwide.

The report warns that glacial melting will cause rivers such as the Ganges in India and the Yellow River in China to turn into seasonal rivers by the second half of the century, greatly undermining the livelihoods of millions who live in these river basins.

Because of water depletion, glacial melting and erratic rainfall patterns, there will be a massive decrease in agricultural production. Food crop production will decrease by at least 30-50 per cent in India and China, forcing them to import from other countries. Consequently, the price of food will skyrocket in the international market and nearly 100 million people in the four countries may be forced to migrate. According to the report, the food crisis and mass migration will lead to conflicts both within and between nations sharing river basins.

As water resources dwindle, water demand will increase along with population growth and economic development. Inevitably, countries will tighten their grip on water resources.

The Nepal problem: too much water, too little water We hear much about the abundant water resources of Nepal. But 80 per cent of the annual rainfall of Nepal falls between June and September and, as the report notes, many people in the hills have to survive on less than five litres of water per capita per day. The monsoon is characterised by heavy precipitation, culminating in flooding across the country. The rest of the year is marked by long spells of drought.

There have been marked changes in the behaviour of the monsoon, and therefore the pattern of water availability in Nepal. This year's delayed and sporadic monsoon has already furrowed brows. Nepal depends heavily on rainwater for irrigation, and only 35 per cent of its arable land has irrigation facilities. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Nepal will have a food deficit of more than 316,465 tonnes this year, owing to the unfavourable monsoon. The report warns that with changing weather patterns, erratic monsoons and rising temperatures, the 'too much water, too little water' syndrome is likely to continue in Nepal.

Water security is a cross-cutting issue with implications for political and economic security. The impact of such massive changes cannot be addressed by the unilateral efforts of nations. The report recommends transboundary collaboration among the four nations for integrated river basin management.

Rubeena Mahato

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