Win-win - Nepali Times

Publisher\'s Note
Win-win

FROM ISSUE #494 (19 MARCH 2010 - 25 MARCH 2010) | TABLE OF CONTENTS

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The peace process won't be complete without putting the finishing touches to the new constitution. The constitution can't be written until the Maoists are demobilised and the camps dismantled. That won't happen until there is an agreement on integration numbers.

That is what it has boiled down to: a numbers game. The Maoist leadership would want nothing better than to have their cadre in the camps go their separate ways because we all know (and they know we know) the real guerrillas are the YCLs.

But they have promised all 19,000 (12,000 if you want to believe the government's estimate) a place in the national army. There is no way the Nepal Army is going to accept all of them, and what is holding things up is that the Army is saying 'zero' and the Maoists are saying '19,000'. This is like bargaining over the price of potatoes in the market. Ultimately both the vendor and the buyer will have to come to a figure agreeable to both. It is called compromise, and it is in very short supply in these polarised times.

However, there is hope of breaking the deadlock. Speaking in Nepalganj on Tuesday Chairman Dahal said it was up to his ladakus to decide whether they wanted to go back to their villages with a compensation package or join the national army. Surprisingly, that is exactly what the Army Chief himself said last week.

Of course, the military says the ex-guerrillas have to meet its 'recruitment criteria' but that shouldn't be such a big deal. If we were to leave it up to the fighters, there is a strong possibility that a whole lot of them would find a golden handshake much more attractive than an uncertain recruitment procedure into the military. The Maoist leadership doesn't want this headache to linger either, so it's just a question of finding a win-win situation in which neither side loses face.

The leadership of all major political parties should have realised by now that it's their own survival that is at stake here. If they don't resolve the deadlock, they will all be swept away by the tidal wave of coming events. They will lose control to someone or something much bigger.

There is no point engaging in this blame game with the UN, it's just not worth it. They should instead be trying to show the UN that we don't need them anymore because we can resolve our disagreements ourselves.

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1. Arthur
Ok, this is actually an improvement. The publisher has stopped pretending the political crisis is about "power sharing" and finally acknowledged that it is about about carrying out the peace agreement integrating the two armies.

Face saving is of course important, so nobody expects that either Kunda Dixit or the present government will admit that their stand for nearly a year now has been a complete waste of time.

But could we perhaps be spared more time wasted by not now pretending that it is "a numbers game"?

There is no way the Nepal Army is going to accept all of them, and what is holding things up is that the Army is saying 'zero' and the Maoists are saying '19,000'. This is like bargaining over the price of potatoes in the market. Ultimately both the vendor and the buyer will have to come to a figure agreeable to both. It is called compromise, and it is in very short supply in these polarised times.

Until a few weeks ago the government was saying "zero". Now as part of its face saving it has to pretend that it wants to empty the cantonments before drafting the constitution and the Maoists are the ones blocking integration. Of course it will be impossible to empty the cantonments before drafting the constitution and the government knows that. But pretending the Maoists have been blocking integration instead of the government helps save face while moving from "zero".

More serious is the problem of changing the mindset of people like Kunda Dixit who openly accepts that the Nepal Army is a political actor entitled to "bargain". In order for there to be any point having a Constitution, the Nepal Army has to accept that it is merely a state institution carrying out the peace agreement and other decisions made by the state. This is absolutely elementary in any democracy. It has never been the case previously in Nepal, just as it is not the case in other backward countries in Africa. How can the generals be expected to understand that they will have zero say in politics, when even people like Kunda Dixit cannot comprehend that change?

The PLA fought for the republic and the Constituent Assembly. The Royal Army fought for the old Nepal. The compromise reached in the peace agreement requires security sector reform so that the Nepal Army becomes a normal democratic institution completely subordinate to civil authority, not an autonomous decision maker that can make and break governments, constitutions and peace agreements.

The point of integrating the PLA is to ensure that democratic transformation actually happens. The old officer corps cannot be expected to do it since they fought against democracy. The army needs people who actually fought for democracy included at all levels.

As long as even people like Kunda Dixit still haven't grasped the concept of an army subordinate to civilians instead of "bargaining" with civilians, democracy in Nepal cannot be secure. This may take several years, but the process should have started 3 years ago and must start now.

The leadership of all major political parties should have realised by now that it's their own survival that is at stake here. If they don't resolve the deadlock, they will all be swept away by the tidal wave of coming events. They will lose control to someone or something much bigger.

What does this mean? If it isn't just empty talk it must be referring to army rule. The old parties do face major losses at the ballot box, but if they turn to the army to save them from that they will certainly be swept away by it, just as they were last time. If they only lose at elections they can hope to win future elections when the Maoists make mistakes.

So they will "resolve the deadlock". After all they didn't do too well in the last civil war and have no reason to expect that they can do better in another one. There was no point in signing the peace agreement if not to eventually carry it out.

But without "losing face", would it really be so difficult for a Kunda Dixit to spell out clearly that the parties should unite for civilian supremacy and democratizing the army, instead of hoping to one day be able to use the army to resolve political disputes in their favor? Even C K Lal is writing a bit more boldly in this issue. Why not Kunda Dixit?

Posted on: 19 MARCH 2010 | 10:55 PM NST

2. rishav
I agree with Kunda on this point. I believe if each of the Maoist rebels were asked on an individual basis if they preferred to join a military institution or a "Golden Hand Shake." I think a lot would take the golden hand shake and run being the true communist rebels as they are. It all comes down to money and how much each of them is prepared to be paid off with. The YCL are the real guerillas and the PLA rebels I guess just want some sort of financial reward with recognition for the nasty insurgent work they have done for the last 10 years.

So Government pay off these rebels with some form of compensation, rehabilitation, support package for life outside of the cantonment sites and that will be it. Those who do wish to join the Nepal Army will go through a special recruitment process selected on a set criteria and will later join a maoist battalion because let's face it if they were to mix with the Nepal Army things could get really messy for them. 19,000 PLA rebels entrance into NA only in their dreams.

Posted on: 22 MARCH 2010 | 5:01 PM NST

3. Nirmal
It's not easy to get to understand both postures taken by different opinion holders, to some extents they generate quasi insoluble conflicts in future. The first: as they are indoctrinated rebels they should be inducted on individual basis(and how can the same subjects guarantee that those individuals will not be treated as prisioners of conscience once they are inducted? the better vocabulary to explain the possible situation is nepali one-asthako bandi-). The second one is much more flawed: all should be inducted as they are the rebels whose contribution has been to bring all of the actors into the negotiation table and promoted significant political changes(creating a status of fundamental difference within an institution of army which is extolled for its performance of equity, and should predict well the principles of equalness amongst every army personnel). More laughable and incoherents are the justiifications of people like ex-CoAS Katwaal who claimed that the NA is already democratic giving examples of how the NA has established ethnic batallions within(let this be the very very british habit in 21st century) . Katwaal saap it is against the spirit of inclusive democracy to segregate its people for their costums, habits and races in educational institutes or in an institution as national army. May pashupatinath show him and others good sight to differentiate between ethnicities, politics and duties!

Posted on: 23 MARCH 2010 | 3:40 AM NST