With 12 weeks to go for the constitution deadline, even the diehard optimists have given up on it being written in time. There is still too much to do and too little time to do it.
Every Nepali knows why, and they squarely blame the political parties for having forgotten why they were elected. A porter in a remote district in Nepal, a sidewalk vendor or a college student would, if asked, be unanimous in agreeing that it is the leadership of the political parties and their greed for power that has delayed constitution-writing and obstructed the peace process.
In any other democracy, this would be cause for serious concern. But not here, it seems. The lack of accountability of a loser-takes-all government, the reckless adventurism of a mauled Maoist opposition and the politicised lobbyists of civil society have all ensured that no one is really worried about public opinion. They have all bypassed the assembly elected to formulate the constitution and have held the country and the peace process hostage with their bickering.
So, if it is certain that the new constitution is not going to be ready by May 28, the question is: what is Plan B? There are wild predictions of political chaos, fears of a street uprising by the Maoists to capture power, presidential rule and martial law so the army can take over. None of this need happen. As Chairman Dahal himself has said often, not writing the constitution by the deadline is not going to mean the sky will fall.
Saner voices will prevail because none of the three political parties want things to spin out of control, their control. The real worry is that the three parties decide to extend the deadline and then go back to sleep again. The real hurdle has always been the inability of the UML, NC and the Maoists to forge a political consensus, and the reason they haven't been able to do that is because they can't agree on the conditions under which the Maoists will be brought back into government.
Hardly anyone disputes that the new constitution can be written with the Maoists out of government. But the triangular distrust among the Brahmin men in the three parties (and with others within their own parties) is so great that no one seems to be able to untie the knot. There are other areas of disagreement: repeated Maoist threats of capturing power by force, their deliberate use of violence to terrorise others, for instance. The Maoists probably feel that these are pressure tactics to force the other two parties to take them into government, but it is having the opposite effect.
There is also a big gap in the drafts submitted by the 11 committees to the plenary. The Maoists want a presidential system, while the NC is rooting for a parliamentary democracy. That could be debated, but the Maoist attempt to write a totalitarian constitution with the judiciary subservient to government, a compulsory draft, and its opening of a Pandora's Box with ethnic-based federalism are dangerous portents.
If we are indeed going to buy six months, we have to make sure we write a constitution that guarantees democracy, pluralism and social justice. We have waited four years, we can wait six more months after May. But we have to do it right.