What do the following have in common: the grand old man of Nepali politics Girija Prasad Koirala; neo-liberals Ram Sharan Mahat and Binod Chaudhary; orthodox Marxists like Chitra Bahadur KC; ethnic entrepreneurs like Laxman Tharu and Kumar Lingden; Panchayat veterans like Surya Bahadur Thapa and Pashupati Rana; perennial revolutionaries like Matrika Yadav; anti-Maoist crusaders like KP Oli; progressive young Turks like Gagan Thapa; Madhesi messiahs like Upendra Yadav and Mahant Thakur; respected lefty scholars like Pitamber Sharma and Chaitanya Mishra; VDC level government servants; and most of Kathmandu's media owners and journalists?
None of them agree with the 14-state model proposed by the CA's state restructuring and power sharing committee.
One group fears the disintegration of the country. This is a flimsy argument. National maps can't be altered so easily. Federalism will only make the state stronger by giving marginalised citizens a sense of ownership. It will connect the country in ways like never before. In fact, the possibility of a conflict and a weakening of the state is much higher if Nepal does not federalise. In any case, federalism has already been decided upon, and the decision will not be reversed.
Other critics, including technocrats, believe the state does not possess the institutional capacity to sustain such a model. This view has some merit. Fourteen states will mean fourteen separate legislative, bureaucratic, police, and judicial machineries. Do we have the required financial and human resources for such a gigantic enterprise? If states lack capacity, federalism may become merely ornamental. Some Maoist leaders privately agree, and have been toying with the idea of six provinces.
Bureaucrats argue the present debate on federalism risks reversing the achievements made by local government. In the proposed delineation of powers, local bodies have not been granted powers much beyond the Local Self-Government Act. The additional complication is that there is a great overlap of functions with the provincial government. Will the latter usurp the role of the grassroots bodies, making the state even more distant for those in rural areas? The Indian experience shows the reluctance of state governments to share money and powers with Panchayats and municipalities. More thinking is clearly required to delineate the local-provincial authority interface.
Planners also point out that east-west federalism, instead of the north-south zones, will mean inadequate utilisation of resources. This may be technically true but politically, north-south is not feasible given the Madhesi sentiment. Also, there will inevitably be inter-state co-operation. It is flawed to say that the Madhes cannot use the water resources of the hills, or hills cannot use the agrarian and industrial strengths of the Madhes. In federal set-ups, states can build on each other's comparative advantages through joint mechanisms.
The third, and most vocal, school of skeptics includes 'national' (mostly Bahun-Chhetri) politicians who believe that the map is too ethnic-centric, ignores Nepal's mixed settlements and is a recipe for riots. This view too has some merit but tends to present a highly distorted and alarmist picture. The present model is not entirely ethnicity based. And as Mahendra Lawoti argues, whichever way you carve out the provinces, some groups will have a majority.
For those worried ethnic provinces will favour those they are named after, the logic of electoral politics should be reassuring.
Take the present Madhes map from Jhapa to Birganj. Six demographic blocks will control the politics - Yadavs, Tharus, Muslims, Dalits, OBCs and guess what, pahadis. If any Madhesi party adopts a chauvinistic, hate-mongering approach, they will lose the pahadi vote entirely, and will be defeated. The same argument applies everywhere, and means new multi-ethnic alliances will emerge in all provinces.
This is not to defend the present map or underplay the dangers of ethnic chauvinism, but to highlight that there is space for compromise. Incorporating ethnicity is a political compulsion, but we need to avoid making ethnicity the sole determinant of political choice.
The good news is that the map can only get better from now on. The bad news is whichever way it turns out eventually, there will be plenty of people ready to burn the constitution.
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