SUBHAS RAI

After marathon meetings and shuttles all week, it now looks more and more likely that the UML-NC+15 small parties combine can reach the magic number 301 to form the next coalition. If that happens, it will be Madhav Kumar Nepal's turn to finally fulfil his ambition of becoming prime minister.

But as with past efforts at government formation, there can be last minute upsets. The wild card is the MJF, which is a kingmaker party with its 53 seats. However, the Forum is internally divided over whether or not to join the government.

The Maoists for their part are reverting to mass mobilisation on Sunday in Kathmandu to shore up their bargaining position. The Maoists have not ruled out joining the government, but their pre-condition that the president backtrack and the army chief step down is unlikely to be met.

"We first want the civilian supremacy restored and then we will even support the UML to form the government," Maoist leader Barsaman Pun told Nepali Times.

However, away from the media glare in the capital, Maoist cadre across the country have been physically assaulting UML and NC cadre. "Chase them away and capture the villages," Maoist central committee member Top Bahadur Rayamajhi instructed his supporters in Argakhanchi on Monday. In other districts the Maoists have given a one-week ultimatum to NC and UML cadre to resign from the party or face "physical action". However much they deny it, instructions to district committees to carry out these threats appear to come straight from the top Maoist leadership.

MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA

Many analysts think Madhav Kumar Nepal's mediation skills and acceptability make him an ideal candidate to lead the coalition. As head of the committee on constitution drafting, he could also re-focus government attention on getting the job done in time.

"Nepal is the right man for the job," said one Kathmandu-based diplomat, "an equilibrium of smaller parties that he leads may be more stable than one dominated by one big party."

Even so, it doesn't look like a new coalition will be possible without the Maoists having some kind of say, which is why they are staging a show of force on Sunday. "The Maoists are deliberately using delaying tactics by obstructing parliament so the new government formation will be delayed," says NC chief whip, Laxman Ghimire.

Given New Delhi's current engagement with developments here, a new coalition in Nepal could also depend on who gets to lead the coalition in India.

With additional reporting by Kunda Dixit in Arghakhanchi