Even professional pessimists never expected such a meltdown. Lulled by the peace deal and fairytale of Maoist incorporation into what passes for civilised politics around here, we were happily distracted from the next series of disasters just waiting to happen.

Looming catastrophes are always slightly better than erupting ones, and the Hand was grateful for a break between crises, no matter how brief or illusory.

But there was no time for gratitude when riots engulfed the tarai-madhesis threatening to cleanse the lowlands of outsiders, declare independence, and form yet another impoverished, landlocked, resource-free country. The Great National Unraveling (GNU) is apparently underway.

The acronym is curiously appropriate. The gnu is an awkward beast of the African savannah, a composite of horse, buffalo, and antelope randomly joined in bits, not unlike the dubious nation state patched together by the Shah dynasty.

The many hill principalities dotting the Himalayas grew less viable as the Mughals conquered North India, giving Prithbi Narayan Shah an opportunity to unite them into something resembling a country. Later, as the British usurped the place of the Mughals, their obsessive need for clearly defined borders led to further consolidation of national boundaries, with little consideration as to who ended up where. The threat of invasion helped the ruling class establish legitimacy and create a desperately needed national mythology centred on the royal family and largely defined by what Nepal is not (ie India). Marginalised janajatis were given subservient roles by the high caste producers of this national creation story and expected to grin and bear it.

Prithbi's famous description of his country as a bountiful garden of various castes and languages fits perfectly into the myth he did so much to create. Being Foreign, the Hand has no sentimental attachment to such poetic images, and suggests the gnu as a more appropriate analogy. What tribe forms which part of the beast is for readers to decide, according to their own ingrained clan prejudices.

National myths are weak, especially when based on spurious claims of god-given caste-based superiority. Lowlanders had no place in the exclusive Bahun-Chhetri-centric Nepali identity and were lumped in with Indians for convenience. The use of the term 'madhesi', though linguistically neutral, often has pejorative overtones implying the suspect 'other' on the fringes of the nation.

The outbreak of violence in the lowlands sparked a rare show of unity between the seven-party alliance and the Maoists, who all feigned similar levels of righteous indignation. The government's stunned and delayed reaction suggests the demands are considered illegitimate. The tired accusations of Palace Intrigue showed that scapegoating is one of the few constants in Nepali politics. Foreign Hand came a close second to royalty, flayed, with ire fit for a king, from the pulpits of Singha Darbar for his alleged meddling.

Having stirred the proverbial nest of vipers with their ethnic-based war and violent politics, the Maoists are shocked that others dare adopt their tactics. The madhesi agitators, whose leaders are all ex-Maoist spin-offs anyway, have learnt their lessons from the Maoists' road to power. We can expect others to follow suit as the threat of GNU gives leverage to any group with a grudge. This spells trouble.

The modern state of Nepal is a marriage of convenience between different ethnic entities and should be recognised as such. Thrown together by geographical and historical fluke there is no escaping each other, which makes co-operation and mutual respect the only option, if only to avoid the dire consequences of collapse.

Fostering that respect is a mandate our politicians, given their abominable record, are unlikely to pull off. Blaming the Palace is the best they can manage so far, which begs the question: who will be left to blame for their mistakes in the republic to come. (Answer: Foreign Hand)

That this conflagration took everyone by surprise is especially troubling, since it suggests that the terrible demons of racial hatred are poorly understood by the ruling class. If the Great National Unravelling isn't arrested soon, through genuine inclusion of minorities into the national polity, choosing which meddler to blame for the ensuing chaos will be the least of our dilemmas. Jai Nepal.