Re-engagement - Nepali Times

MIN RATNA BAJRACHARYA

NEW DELHI. The Indian establishment is confused about what to do next in Nepal.

After May 2009, there was a certain coherence among the different actors who shape Delhi's Nepal policy. The key tenet was to maintain the 'democratic alliance' within Nepal to pose a political challenge to the Maoists. But the formation of the current government, the shift in power equations within the Indian bureaucracy, and a review about what India has gained and lost in this period has led to divisions.

For all its democratic orientation, foreign policy � especially when it comes to neighbours, where security interests are involved � is a fairly closed affair in India. Less than a dozen people in the Prime Minister's Office, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), and the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) call the shots.

On Nepal, some people had been arguing that it was necessary to engage with the Maoists and get them back on board. But there was strategic determination not to do so until the Maoists underwent a 'course correction'. The consensus that the Maoist strategic calculus could only be changed by mounting a united political offensive against them is now broken and two distinct lines, with elements that overlap, are discernible.

The first is the line that has been pushed for the past few years by the Indian embassy leadership here, key MEA and RAW officials who handle Nepal, and the National Security Advisor.

This school was convinced that the Maoists were aiming to establish a one-party communist state; if left unchallenged, they had the capacity to do so; and the Maoists were hostile to Indian security interests and could not be trusted with power. So the priority was to keep the Maoists out, raise costs for them for backtracking on promises, frustrate their designs, and eventually let the CA dissolve without the constitution being drafted in order to dry out a major source of legitimate strength for the Maoists and shift power away from them. The former rebels would be left without a stake in the government; there would be no legislature; and there were clear limits to street action, thus foiling Maoist plans to consolidate power through 'sadak, sadan ra sarkar' (street, parliament, and government).

But the collapse of the 'democratic alliance'; the perception that China has gained political space and introspection about whether Indian rigidity has allowed that; recognition that the CA may get extended again; the limited appetite within Nepal for an all-out confrontation; and the growing difficulties in keeping Maoist Chairman Dahal out of power have all led to the emergence of a second line.

Key people in MEA, who are not directly on the Nepal desk but have influence, have been arguing for a fresh approach that does not expose India so starkly and allows events to take their natural course. Questions are being raised about whether a direct deal with the Maoists was possible, and preferable to the arrangement that has now taken shape. There has also been a change in the top leadership of the intelligence agencies, and it is willing to review the existing approach. Make no mistake, this school does not trust the Maoists, neither does it intend to give them a blank cheque. They too will insist on progress on integration and rehabilitation, and will not compromise on certain democratic precepts. But they dismiss suggestions that dissolving the CA is either possible or desirable; believe that even if Dahal comes to power, Indian security interests will not be affected; and see no reason why they should invest so much in backing domestic players with a weak mass base who themselves are not serious about fighting the Maoists.

There is also lack of clarity on how to deal with the Jhala Nath Khanal government. Some have suggested that since the left alliance may well consolidate, it is perhaps best to do business with them and use the opportunity to push the Maoists to deliver on commitments. But the general sense is that this government has its roots in anti-Indianism. They feel that a strong opposition is essential to keep the government in check, as its consolidation will mean the long-term marginalisation of the Nepali Congress and Madhesi forces that India is close to. For now though, officials are happy to see Khanal and Dahal get bogged down in internal challenges, and are waiting for the government's roadmap on the peace process.

While there is a danger that Nepali politics will be held hostage to inter-agency battles in Delhi, the breakdown of the earlier 'keep the Maoists out' compact is a positive thing. The debates could potentially force policymakers to
re-examine their assumptions and attune themselves better to the political realities on the ground. The Maoists would do well to seize the opportunity, reach out, and take steps that would allay Indian apprehensions on the peace process and its own security interests.

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1. coolgy
as if this Madhesi brahmin sets the India policy of Nepal...rubbish!!

Posted on: 11 MARCH 2011 | 10:31 AM NST

2. bibek
1. Does Prashant get these information from some divine power in his dream?
2. Does he have some solid logic or reasoning instrument on which these information are based? If so, why doesn't he mention them?
3. Does Prashant have sources inside places who reveal these information? If so, mention that too. And in such case, I think this article is more suitable for a Nagarik or Kantipur front-page than here.
4. Are you just guessing? In which case, I need 7 minutes of my life back. And why put him on print every week with such pieces which can not be verified. What's more, it can neither be disbelieved nor be believed. Wow, why not write stories, or make movies?

-b

Posted on: 11 MARCH 2011 | 1:42 PM NST

3. Saroj
I wish coolgy, you would have a better criticism than write a purpose less sentence. Plus whats up with the racist comment of using his cast? At least try to respect his intellect...otherwise stay out from a nice discussion. It is because of intolerant people such as yourself our society is so polarized. Even if you do not agree respect his ideas. That does not cost anything.

I think the article was interesting, but i seriously doubt the assumption of Prasant that the Indian intelligence had not thought of such scenarios unfolding in Nepal. The changes in leadership in Lainchaur -soon to come- the invitation of Bhattarai in India were all preliminary steps to set how they may influence it again. So i doubt as country such as India with its diplomatic and military leverage in Nepal can be confused about the current situation. I am sure there was a contigency plan in placed. I think by now India must have a set of plugs that they can pull based on what the issue is. If i were so concerned with security, i would have such policy tools in hand. So lets see how India's presence unfolds here.

Posted on: 11 MARCH 2011 | 6:35 PM NST

4. Arthur
"It looks like it's the Indians who are now willing to correct course vis-ï¿½-vis the Maoists"

After so many articles demanding that the Maoists must change course to suit the Indians, perhaps it is time for Prashant Jha to acknowledge that his previous analysis was wrong and it is time for him to change course and consider the logic of Maoist tactics more respectfully.

Not everybody is able to make India change course. Taking a stand that succeeds in doing so implies intelligence and courage.

Posted on: 11 MARCH 2011 | 7:49 PM NST

5. hange
For once, I'm in agreement with Arthur. While the Maoists may be blood-thirsty power seekers, they are definitely not stupid nor do they lack courage. And they obviously keep giving India's "Nepal handlers" fits.

Posted on: 11 MARCH 2011 | 11:11 PM NST

6. rishav
These artciles are starting to really bore me!

I'll sum up the story of Modern Nepal.

A multiparty democracy of 1990, with democratic free and fair elections formed a Governement by the winners Nepali Congress, with the opposition CPN-UML (a democratic non-violent communist civilian party). During the early days of this fledgling democracy a frustrated radical communist group, who will become the Maoists, who did not fair well in the intial democratic elections felt it was now necessary to take up arms in revenge against the people for not voting for them and for the party's own failures as a civilian democratic party. Rather than trying to add and help develop a fledgling Nepali democracy they would attempt to destroy it in their lust for power.

The insurgency by this guerilla extreme group was not focused at the monarchy, as the institution was already sidelined by the changes of the 1990 movement, but against the multiparty democracy system and all the parties in the elected parliament. A reality which is not presented by certain western individuals including their media who don't really read or look back at Nepali history with any depth, that includes the moron who calls himself Arthur, who is too scared to mention his real name or where he is from. He is a Maoist lover anyway and might as well be a Gaddafi lover as well.

The Maoists by turning into little devils would attempt to get into power through force. At the end of the day, their interpretation of democracy ain't that much different to Colonel Gaddafi's, "the people love me," "I am the people," " I am the people's voice," Listen to his speeches and listen to the Maoist leaders there isn't much difference.

Nepal has had it really rough during the insurgency and now we are in situation where we would not get free and fair elections, if we where to go ahead with polls today it would produce a result very similar to Iran, Zimbamwe, Libya, Egypt thanks to the Maoists. Fear works really well as a tool inorder to get votes and also polling booth capturing as well.

I'm bored of talking about Nepal/India relations, I'm more focussed about what us Nepai's can do for our own country, than fearing what another country can do to ours.

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 5:06 AM NST

7. Never mind
"While there is a danger that Nepali politics will be held hostage to inter-agency battles in Delhi, the breakdown of the earlier 'keep the Maoists out' compact is a positive thing."

It indeed is a positive thing, but I don't think having a 'keep the Maoists out' policy is so grand when they are already in.

Looking at this, one would think that everything in Nepal was decided by some irritated looking bureaucrats in India, it is only once you look at the course of events in Nepali politics, that you know it is.

Therefore, since irritated bureaucrats are making the policies and that is having the kind of impact that we see, would it be considered unhelpful to ask them to go have a party, get drunk and act stupid.

Suddenly you realise why they are not invited in parties, they already are drunk, and act stupid.

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 6:14 AM NST

8. who cares
after reading a dozen columns by jha, i kinda think jha's intention is to make nepalese believe/hypnotize that india is our master, nothing is possible in nepal without the wish of delhi.

*just like india used maoist to destroy what commie stands for- anti ethnic.

*just like EU used maosit to destroy what commie are against- promotion of Christianity, converting nepalese into Christiana.

here jha pretends to be a supporter of anti indian (maoist- on the surface), while at the same time trying to accomplish indian agenda which is to make nepalese think that nepalese should always knee down in front of indians.

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 2:20 PM NST

9. who cares
i do not care what india thinks, from nepalese point of view:

may be you have heard the phrase "when going gets tough, tough gets going".

this is what is happening to maoist.

if you know, if you chase maoist, it will run into a hole when it finds the hole. forming this govt. is similar.

now, democrats should make sure, there is no other opening. for quick result- burn the hole,

for slow outcome- wait for the rat to go hungry.

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 2:25 PM NST

10. Slarti

"Less than a dozen people in the Prime Minister's Office, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), and the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) call the shots."

I am sure that Indians are generally a nice sort of people and mostly harmless.

However, the reason why these "less than a dozen" people call all the shots in Nepal is because they are directly linked to the less than a dozen people who call the shots in Nepal. And these people frankly don't know where they want to go, other than Baluwatar.

I don't know any politicians, but I simply can imagine from what I hear generally that the discussion revolves around two extremes.

One, the intrigues, rumours, and conspiracy theories which is the real discussion behind closed doors and, second, the hyperbolic rhetoric, which is the various combinations of constitution can be made, can't be made.

And why Maoists (or NC or UML) can have power, should have power, would have power, and cannot, shouldn't, and wouldn't, have power.

Meanwhile, the real point of political parties which is to design policies and work out the glitches in them through competitive politics is completely lost.

The reason behind that is quite simple. As Prashant claims, less than a dozen men in Delhi, and less than a dozen men in Kathmandu, want to lord of the fortunes and fate of over 30 million Nepali's.

No wonder they don't accept party invitations, they are all having too much fun at the expense on Nepal.

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 8:29 PM NST

11. Deep
It may well be that the 'dropping of the keep maoists out' policy is - not due to a maoist victory - but simply as it's now served its purpose. I.e., it has shown them that they can be indefinitely kept out until they accept some compromise with India's terms. Even the dense Prachanda seems to have realised this.
India plays a very long diplomatic game, with several possible outcomes pursued at the same time; a main one being to cultivate the more pragmatic India-friendly Bhattarai faction. In the long term Bhattarai seems better placed to succeed, his pragmatic realpolitik is more flexible - whereas even the most loyal mao-oids (apart from the naive Arthurs in their fantasy worship) must be tiring of the umpteenth Prachanda call for revolt that is then always postponed. The bored, aging PLA veterans must also be tiring of years of broken promises, (and of living in poverty while their leaders live in wealthy comfort) all of which adds to fragmentation of Prachanda's constituencyparticularly. Bhattarai is simply a better bourgeois politician than Prachanda will ever be - and electoral politics is all that is realistically available to them now, however many more times they pretend to "prepare for revolt".

Posted on: 12 MARCH 2011 | 4:38 AM NST

12. romeo
Don't be naive. These guys get their guidelines from the Embassy and the secretaries and the ambassador --- in a subtle way. Do you think these people write these things on their own?

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 7:52 AM NST

13. rk babu

hmm i think that the article has a strong element of truth. india went to great lenghths to cut democratic parties to size take out monarchy and help maoists. then suddenly maoists changed sides so they now have their back on the wall. nepal is a game the indain establishment cannot afoord to loose so one who sows the wind shall reap the whirllwind.

about the maoists. if they trully loved nepal they would help make a democratic constitution and leav their guns behind. but they did not come so far because of their love for nepal. the one who lives by the gun shall die by the gun.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 10:25 AM NST

14. who cares
Slarti,

you must be really excited that your master is in holy city hoping for blessing from your higher lord.

but dont get that excited, delhi might just be trying to send a message to our president that if he chicken outs, they will be compelled to support gyn bahadur.

why is it that democrats, especially in nepal are so weak in using force? which is why, others dont have other option but to support feudal to crush terrors.

37. Slarti
#35, Make a mental note of this fact, no matter how much abuse you throw, people like me have suffered your types for too long. Now that all is done, you are not going to stop me from speaking my mind.

There is a limit to how much stupidity one can tolerate and how much filthy abuse one can accept.

it will suit you more if you complain to those whom your master jailed for decades, disappeared, tortured, killed for having different non violent political view.

tell those who give your master the advice your master did not want to hear (work with democratic forces- during the coup) and which followed attack on their business, brought them to road from their own palace.

DONT THINK THAT ALL NEPALESE ARE IGNORANT.

how low these dead royals and their sheep, maosit and their ship?

its lakhs of nepalese who pulled shahs down during first people's movement, and these deads say delhi did it.

its millions of nepalese who kicked out shahs during second people's movement and again they give credit to delhi.

you low life simply do not have respect for simple nepalese, do you?

did your master had support from greater public when they couped- mahandra bahadur, gyn bahadur?

did not mahandra couped with the silent support of delhi and beijing?

in the history of nepal, we have only proof of maoist taking or trying to take money from foreign lords- delhi admitting of giving maoist cash, mahara's trying to get money from international drug lord. ..........

and still they are the one who call others foreign agent.

these jokes have been going on in nepal for decades cause there are still many nepalese who are dumb.

but this time, it wont benefit you people the way it helped you for decades.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 11:35 AM NST

15. Ayesha

Firstly and most importantly, where does the writer gets information esp. about the RAW's options and policy thoughts?

Secondly, why does he only and not other Nepalese journalists get such information ? Does he have special links with India?

Thirdly, not quoting sources once in a while (on the security pretext) is fine but when it becomes a habit than an exception, it is not responsible journalism. I have noticed the writer not using sources even when he quotes.

Fourthly, the writer writes as if he knows the Foreign Policy of the Indian establishment towards Nepal inside out. Shows his intellectual shallowness and political immaturity.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 12:27 PM NST

16. Slarti

it will suit you more if you complain to those whom your master jailed for decades, disappeared, tortured, killed for having different non violent political view.

My King, the King of Nepal, did jail people who were in contravention to the constitution of Nepal. It was only my master, the King, who conducted a referendum to find out the views of the people that he loved, and despite winning brought changes to the constitution which ensured non-partisan co-operation within the legislature.

The decapitators of heads were not holding "non-violent" political views. Merely saying that does not change the fact that they harbored great capacity for violence had they been allowed.

There were injustices in the conduct of affairs, that is why there was multi-party democracy. But if there was so much injustice, how come nobody did a thing about all the time that they were in power. How come they all sat quitely. This was not down to fear, they were bold enough to insult the King whenever their own purpose was served. This was down to the fact that the level of injustice and miscarriage of justice was extremely low and down to mistakes at the lower level. It was so negligible that they simply could not do a thing even if they wanted to.

If you deliberately choose to be ignorant than do kindly continue being so. It was the king who wanted to firmly re-establish democracy. Look back at the history, I don't have the time to create a single message which will encapsulate every single detail of the splits created by your party leadership which led us to this situation when those protecting democracy and who have really protected democracy are the ones being insulted repeatedly.

I have heard more than enough clowns like you make even worse accusations, and I have seen media promote other ideas too.

It is apparent from your comments that you are unaware of the point of democracy. You simply are an abusive fool who simply must repeat the same thing over and over again hoping that lies would become truth.

DONT THINK THAT ALL NEPALESE ARE IGNORANT.

I AM A NEPALI, I AM NOT IGNORANT, ARE YOU TELLING ME THAT YOU ARE NOT A NEPALI AND THAT'S WHY YOU ARE SO IGNORANT?????

you must be really excited that your master is in holy city hoping for blessing from your higher lord.

but dont get that excited, delhi might just be trying to send a message to our president that if he chicken outs, they will be compelled to support gyn bahadur.

why is it that democrats, especially in nepal are so weak in using force? which is why, others dont have other option but to support feudal to crush terrors.

You are just an obsessed fool like millions of other socialists, what is it that you are trying say. Oh sorry you never have anything to say, just silly little insults to throw at people. Just tell me whats your point here?

Whether I am getting excited or not, is that any of your business? Oh no, you are a hateful twit who must hate for absolutely no reason.

The King is gone, there is no coming back, but if anyone ever wants a closure then they will have to face the truth otherwise there won't be any peace and people like your good selves will continue to rule this country.

these jokes have been going on in nepal for decades cause there are still many nepalese who are dumb

No, they are not, you probably are, but that means you are not Nepali.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 12:36 PM NST

17. Slarti
And who cares, I know the little trick that you have devised with your Maoist pals to get the attention away from the real issues because you are afraid that my reasons for protecting democarcy are too good for you to bear. I am a constitutional monarchist because that is the constitutional structure which is right.

I know clearly the reasons and have a sense of the people who got together to destroy a beautiful and peaceful nation. When you post your next note, try about ten times harder, you Maoists will still not get past the truth.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 12:41 PM NST

18. Barking dead royal supporter
Why are being a chicken and running scared #14. The fact remains that you have absolutely no idea that the Kings made a mistake by allowing dim low life back stabbers and thieves masquerading as democrats to govern this country. Look around, look at the mess the fools have created. People are dying everywhere, there is no peace, no constitution, bullies and murderers are calling themselves revolutionaries and liars like you are calling yourself intellectuals. Had the King ensured that such people were better off hiding in little holes and caged in prisons we would be much happier and far more prosperous and have real democracy and not the phoney one that you have right now.

Your turn, have a go as hard as you can. Please, I am begging you, do try, try a lot harder. Please, please, lie as much as you can, go for it, let your imagination run free.

I won't bite, I promise.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 2:36 PM NST

19. who cares
slarti,

not impressed,

and regarding your belief in constitutional monarchist, go read the book of ex general shah about the ground reality during constitutional monarchy.

how constitutional your monarchy had always been?

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 3:11 PM NST

20. Slarti
What upsets me particularly about people like who cares is that they are the ones obsessed with politics, they then hide behind some phrases (Non-violent, revolutionary) like cowards that they are. They drag people into arguments by abusing others and then claim victimhood as protection to destroy everybody else's life.

If you are a socialist then go dig yourself a hole somewhere and hide in that. If you didn't like Nepal then you should go and hide yourself in some other country. Why do you insist on destroying life's of people like us who have no interest in politics and who did live by the law of the land?

The block headedness, the pointlessness, the weirdness, the obsessive behaviour, the nonsensical argument, the meanness, all of that reeks of corruption as the very basis of the existence of people like who cares.

They call themselves democrats because they think its a cure all, they hurl insults at Jhala Nath because they think thats the trend, they hurl insults on NC, the people of this country, all of that without even knowing how to spell the names of the Kings of this country.

I sometimes really do wonder that this is all planned to create a spirit of hopelessness, I actually am close to believing it, because each comment reeks of such ignorance and so much insult to this nations collective memory that whenever I get a chance to talk to anybody, they all say no more politics, enough!!!

I am not going to let it go, its because people like me who were keen to just get by, going Ke garne yastey cha, who created this confusing and silly times.

I am standing up no matter what, and its a shame that others don't stand up for real democracy and for this country simply because they are scared they would get insulted by two penny twits masquerading as democracts, well wishers and know it alls.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 8:19 PM NST

21. who cares
we use facts to support our arguments,

where as commies and dead royalties use fictitious literature to back their beliefs.

may be that is why, only maoist were successfully able to counter lies of shahs with their own lies during those days.

cause both of you viruses relied on curving freedom of speech (criticism), today in free world, both are unable to cope with truth.

you better borrow some stories from ramayan to counter others.

your days of forcing others to address you as maharaj, sarkar, hajur, mausuf are over.

Posted on: 13 MARCH 2011 | 11:17 PM NST

22. Palestinian

Simply, India is trying to make Nepal like Palestine. If India succeed on it, eventually will face not less than breaking this severe pandora box. Indian are undermining this pandora box, treating Nepal like Palestine is gonna cost them much. Not only Nepal, there are many other.

Palestinian you must have known well, everyday bombin protecting their own sovereign country. Don't instigate it to us. We are fed up, its too much .......Rem. Palestinian!! or Talibanism, change it sonner then later.

Posted on: 17 MARCH 2011 | 12:15 PM NST