Irrespective of whether the government succeeds on the peace and constitution front, Jhala Nath Khanal will probably fail in his other stated objective �" 'of strengthening institutions of governance'.
Frequent changes in government after 1990 resulted in frequent changes in personnel and the rapid circulation of elites. At times, there was slight tweaking of policy. But the real tragedy of politics in the last two decades has been that no dispensation had the political commitment, will or strength to reform the administrative apparatus, fight interested lobbies, and formulate and implement policies with the broader public interest in mind. The real aim has been survival, in order to extract and use state resources to expand one's base and consolidate power.
Khanal will not be able to do much for the simple reason that he will have to invest all his energy in political management and balancing conflicting interest groups to survive. To think that he has any time or incentive or skills to invest in resolving issues like power cuts and unemployment is naïve.
Second, his cabinet consists of old-timers like Bharat Mohan Adhikari and Bishnu Poudel, who have the backing of key business interests and have developed their political base by catering to their interests. The first-timers, mostly from the Maoists, have gained access to state power after a long wait. If the first Maoist stint in power is any indication, the priority will be less to think of ways to radicalise administrative structures than to steer them towards catering to their political base. The pressure on these Maoist ministers will be even higher as their political base has waited patiently for years, if not more than a decade, to gain the patronage that others have capitalised on. Some ministers may have new ideas, but the constraints of their parties will diminish their ability to act independently.
Even if Khanal and his cabinet try to steer reform, through cracking the whip on certain public sector institutions, introducing new personnel, making the administration more accountable, or breaking the cop-criminal nexus, a coalition of established interests will raise the alarm. Most of these moves will have a hint of partisan motives. The NC-inclined bureaucracy, the commercial interests that will lose out if public schools or health institutions even begin to succeed, the corrupt security apparatus, and the media, which is an entrenched part of the establishment, will begin saying this is all a conspiracy to 'take over the state'. A cry for 'democracy' will be raised to force Khanal to play along with the status quo.
Nepal's best-known television anchor, Vijay Kumar Panday, has a reservoir of political anecdotes. One such story is about the time he went to meet a prime minister, soon after 1990, in his office chambers. It was morning, and the PM was inside, taking a nap. Panday was amazed, and said aloud, "Sir. There has been such a remarkable political change. Expectations are so high. Don't you have to work and deliver instead of sleeping?" The PM laughed and adapted an old vernacular metaphor to denote insignificant change: "It is all the same. If I work, the result will be 19; otherwise 18."
Call it fatalism, but that may well have been among the most profound political insights into running this country. It explains why there was little substantial difference for the common man when GP Koirala was in office, working four hours a day, or when Dahal or Madhav Nepal were heading government, working 12-14 hours a day.
For an overhaul in governance, old patronage networks have to be broken down; fresh politician-bureaucrat equations must be created; ruling parties need to have a degree of security so that they can stop worrying only about survival; constituents have to begin demanding 'public goods' and not merely 'private goods'; and a consensual political compact on certain issues needs to be worked out. It is unlikely Khanal will be able to do any of this. And even if he does, the opponents will raise the cry of 'democracy is in danger', or 'state capture', to block any effort at governance reform �" since governance reform is so inextricably linked to which political constituencies get what resources.
The '18-19' framework will remain unbroken. And Khanal will join the line of PMs who, despite the support of 'revolutionaries', reinforced the status quo in the way this country is run.
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