KIRAN PANDAY |
By now it must be clear to most Nepalis that UNMIN's mission in Nepal is a done deal. Even the Maoists are only really pretending that with India on the Security Council, there is any possibility of another extension. So why bother?
The fuss they are kicking up has nothing to do with a concern for the larger peace process. By calling for UNMIN to stay, which they well know is impossible in the current configuration, they are hoping that they will at least be granted a residual mini-UNMIN, or at any rate a UN-related committee to take on some of UNMIN's mandate. Whatever form this body takes, the Maoists will hope to use it as cover for their actions, and to buffer their ex-combatants from direct dealings with the Special Committee and its secretariat. At the very least, their dire predictions now will allow for 'told you so' pontifications later, and justifications for situations that the Maoists themselves will play a part in creating in the months to come. To wit, they are creating room to manouevre.
The inability or refusal of the Maoists to take the difficult decisions that would eventuate in their 'losing' their military capability reflects a deep insecurity about their ability to retain power in a democratic set-up. This is not surprising, given their ideological make-up, and the past and current reluctance to support radical change of Nepal's mainstream political parties and the elite. But their continued reliance on the PLA is now a liability for both Maoists and non-Maoists.
If the intention was never to wean themselves off the PLA and associated militias, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Co. may have imagined they were pulling one over the Nepali public and the international community when they signed the Comprehensive Peace Accord. But if they still believe that they can capture the state and establish a dictatorship of the proletariat, they've pulled the wool over their own eyes.
On the other hand, if they are sincere about becoming a democratic party that relies only on the ballot, and not the bullet, then they had bloody well get on with it. We're all getting old waiting, never mind those wasted lives in the cantonments.
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