 KIRAN PANDAY |
Unless the political parties agree on the major contents of the constitution, the make-up of the future Nepali state, and delinking the Maoist political party from its army, the existing Constituent Assembly-cum-Legislature/Parliament will die on 28 May, 2011. Gone with it will be the prime minister (caretaker or otherwise), the speaker/chairman, and all the committees of the Constituent Assembly.
Only the president's office will remain active. Of course, lawyers close to the Maoists and the Maoist leaders themselves and their army of apologists have argued that the president too will cease to exist.
It will be in no one's interest, least of all the Maoists', to have presidential rule. Surprisingly, the dominant sections of the three major parties � NC, the Maoists, and UML � are open to President Ram Baran Yadav (pictured above with Indian Army Chief Vijaya Kumar Singh, Wednesday) stepping in. Clearly they have their own calculations.
Let us take the Maoist party first. Having tried all the angles it could think of, from civilian supremacy to national sovereignty, enforcing a nationwide shutdown to issuing the open threat of people's revolt, the party has failed to ignite the desired passion among large sections of the populace. Exasperated, it even tried throwing in the revival of the monarchy as a 'cultural' or 'people's' monarchy (whatever the last means). Nothing has clicked.
The party, especially Chairman Dahal, is looking for an agenda to galvanise the nation and especially its cadre base, which is growing disenchanted by his 'Rado' culture. Presidential rule, before the CA dies a natural death, would provide just that spark. "We told you so," will be the refrain from Dahal and his acolytes.
NC's hardline faction wants the head of state to take matters in hand because it feels the country is sliding into chaos due to Maoist atrocities, obstinacy, and its refusal to accept a constitution that guarantees constitutional supremacy, pluralism, an independent judiciary, and a free press. They are gaining strength since the Maoists have continued to add fuel to their suspicions, thus weakening the moderates in NC who advocate courting the Maoists and believe they can transform into a truly civilian democratic party.
The Madhav Kumar Nepal-KP Oli faction of UML would gladly accept presidential rule, now or post-28 May. These two leaders are itching to "teach the Maoists a lesson" and by proxy, their own party chairman Jhalanath Khanal, who is close to the Dahal-led faction of the Maoist Party.
Needless to say, these influential people do not believe the constitution will be written and promulgated by 28 May, 2011. But presidential rule will not follow the script they may expect.
All the gains made since the success of People's Movement II in 2006 will be either lost or will come under attack from royalist forces that are already rearing their heads. Dahal would be too happy to even formally align with them. He is already hobnobbing with them under the umbrella of 'nationalism'.
The sections in the big three parties and civil society that believe that the country has really made impressive gains and can build on it need to openly raise their voice in favour of writing the constitution and settling the question of ex-Maoist combatants. Growing calls for presidential rule should be a wake-up call for them, for it won't be Dr Yadav who will be running the show if rule in his name is announced.
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