Nepali Times
PRASHANT JHA
Plain Speaking
Damage control


PRASHANT JHA


LONDON- As leaders of 20 countries that account for 80 per cent of the world's economy sit together, they may face protests like that of last Saturday that rocked central London.

From asserting that 'capitalism isn't working' to declaring 'we won't pay for your crisis', from asking powerful nations to 'act against climate change' and urging all to 'put the people first', the 40,000 strong march had all the ingredients that would have thrilled our own left parties holding demos at Ratna Park.

This was more than a bunch of loony anarchists or doped out students on the streets. It represented the anger and the helplessness at losing livelihoods that people feel in this part of the world. Those on the sidelines on the streets cheered the protests on, revealing the depth of the feeling.

And for once, the state has not been able to ignore it. The entire police force was deployed for Thursday's G20 summit and leaves were cancelled. Those working in the financial sectors, the City as they call it here, have been asked to dress down or not come to office fearing attacks by an enraged mob. More than a terrorist attack, the world leaders and the financial elite seems to be in fear of their own people.

There are predictions that the UK economy will contract by 3-3.5 per cent for the first time since 1931. All sectors are affected: from the media that is losing advertisements to academic universities where funding will dip drastically.

South Asian friends who were just celebrating a huge salary hike are now laid off and looking to come back home.
While some are hoping that the crisis would signal the possibility of the resurgence of some form of radical left politics, others are skeptical that it may in fact strengthen the anti-immigrant right wing. "Remember, Hitler came after the Great Depression. The world cannot afford to get this wrong," comments an Oxford history scholar.

What is certain though is that there can be no business as usual. Economic nationalism and protectionism, to varying degrees, is back. The basic logic of Keynesian economics, massive state intervention to create jobs, is fashionable again. And, as the AIG bonus episode in US showed, people will no longer accept an era of no regulation where a few indulge in reckless economics, yet make obscene amounts.

The G20 is significant because it signals that the world cannot be left to a few white western men. The presence of India, Brazil, South Africa and others from Latin America and Asia is reaffirmation of the need for a broader global leadership. Others see the G20 as a G2 where China will play as important a role as the US.

At the time of going to press, there is no policy consensus among the top leaders. Obama and Brown will push for a global stimulus package. Some reports suggest figures as high as $2 trillion. A few EU governments have been resistant to more government spending and are worried about deficit, inflation and debt issues, with the Czechs even calling Obama's domestic $800 billion stimulus as a "road to hell".

France and Germany are insistent that the immediate need is an overhaul and strengthening of the entire international regulatory regime. Europe and US will talk about the effects of the US domestic stimulus, but also what is needed to help eastern Europe. China and India will be heard in rapt attention to see how much they can bail the rest of the world out.

The meetings on the sidelines will be as significant. The Afghanistan-Pakistan issue is sure to figure in the Obama-Manmohan Singh talks. Obama will meet his Russian counterpart and discuss arms control, Iran and Afghanistan. But the highlight will be the US-China meeting where leaders will size each other up and discuss a host of global issues.

In the ingrown world of Kathmandu politics and its petty intrigues, it is often easy to forget that there is a world out there: a world that is changing because of the enormity of the global recession. We may get affected primarily through a dip in remittances and tourism. But policymakers in the foreign and finance ministry must keep an eye on London summit, and the larger rapid evolution of global political and economic dynamics.



LATEST ISSUE
638
(11 JAN 2013 - 17 JAN 2013)


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