India is getting increasingly concerned about the slide in Nepal, but doesn't think it warrants a policy shift just yet.
Indian officials admit that they are unhappy with the Maoists: "They have not delivered on their promises,"

one official told us, "their commitment to democracy seems doubtful. They are warming up to China. Not good signs."
But sources insist India continues to support the peace and constitution writing process and will not destabilise the present arrangement. "It will be good if non-Maoist actors add pressure on the Maoists. But we will not back any effort to topple the government right now," one senior official told Nepali Times.

Delhi's cautious approach is probably because any policy rethink will require a top level decision and politicians are in election mode. Neither the political leadership nor the senior bureaucratic establishment has time for Nepal. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in hospital, the MEA is busy with Pakistan and keeping Richard Holbrooke's hands off Kashmir. The endgame in Sri Lanka is the other key regional issue.

"Nepal is not on the radar, do not expect any move till after our elections unless something drastic happens," a former diplomat said.

Add to it the sense that domestic politics in Nepal has not played its course yet. "If we jump in, the Maoists will say they did not get a fair chance and blame us. Let them get more discredited and see how otherparties respond," said a security official.

PM Special Envoy Shyam Saran, who no longer handles Nepal, says India's classic dilemma in Nepal is to figure out when to get involved and when to withdraw. "The same people tell us come and help, and then they say give us space," Saran told us, "we have intervened earlier. But the present mood is to step back."

India's options are limited, it feels the NC can't mount a credible challenge, the UML is too unreliable and the Madhesi parties are too fragmented. A major policy shift would also be an admission of failure of India's own policy.

This week, Minister Pranab Mukherjee boasted to Al Jazeera how India had "persuaded the Maoists to give up violence and participate in the mainstream national political activities".

Even so, sections of the Indian establishment are telling the Maoists to behave, NC to clean up its mess, the army to resist the Maoists and are encouraging the anti-Maoist faction in the UML. What all this will add up to may be clear in a few months. Till then, India will wait and watch.