As the D-Day of the Republican Assembly draws closer, political players of all persuasions, from monarchists to Maoists and mainstreamers to marginal players, all have their favourite conspiracy theory to explain their possible defeat at the polls.
Graffiti-President Pushpa Kamal Dahal believes in a UML-US nexus to defeat him. Madhab Nepal, UML Gen Sec for Life, has his own ghost to exorcise: regional parties that resist the cultural hegemony of UML's priestly politics. Monarchists as usual blame the southern neighbour and even invited KV Rajan from New Delhi to clear up the mess left by Digvijay Singh.
The kangresis may still fare reasonably well in the first-past-the-post part of the elections, but the PR portion of the result is sure to give them a big jolt. So they have a readymade excuse to explain their defeat: the Maoists and the UML are working on a leftist takeover of the country.
But the Mother of All Conspiracies must go to the Bhaisepati Plot to foil constituent assembly elections. Bajar hulla has it that KP Bhattarai will lead the way for the revival of the monarchy in Nepal.
In Birganj, the town that gave Kisunji the first electoral victory of his political life, there is a tradition of declaring a \'Mahamurkhadhiraj of the Year' at the time of Holi. This year, the jury has an easy job of bestowing the title to Bhattaraibaje.
Those who attended Bhattarai's Bhainsepati party to save the monarchy reads like who's who of Nepal's most opportunistic politicos. Many were armchair revolutionaries during the Panchayat years, but none lived up to their promise during Gyanendra's absolute rule-nearly all of them were on the wrong side of the barricades during the April Uprising. Their call to save the monarchy will probably hasten its demise.
This is not to say that scheduled elections don't face challenges from various desperate elements. Nepal's judiciary isn't too well known for either its impartiality or competence. It can still be impressed upon by Hindutva forces to postpone polls indefinitely by taking recourse to procedural flaws such as that controversy over \'real' Sadhbhabana Party.
Kangresi conservatives in the cabinet can be persuaded by senior administrators of the country to use deteriorating law and order as a pretext to prevent a legitimate takeover by \'leftist forces'. MJF radicals and Maoist hotheads are always prepared to provide grounds to doubt the security situation.
However, none of the schemes will work this time. Nepalis haven't voted for nearly a decade and they desperately want to teach the monarchists and the Maoists a lesson. The international community (represented by UNMIN on the ground) has its reputation at stake. It stands to lose not only face but also their relevance if planned elections aren't held. South Block babus will have a lot of explaining to do to the political establishment in New Delhi if polls in Nepal are once again postponed.
However, it's the interest of the Nepal Army that will ensure scheduled polls. Its image has been in tatters ever since the royal massacre. Then it fought a dirty war against the Maoists, and submitted timidly to the king's February First takeover.
The Nepal Army brass has now realised that allowing a third postponement of constituent assembly elections will be tantamount to giving a walkover to the Maoists. Its redemption lies in ensuring that voters will keep MJF and Maoist extremists in their places.
Loyal royals assembling regularly at the Buffalo Inn will do well not to try to sabotage elections. They can easily be found out because everyone knows there is only one entity that can possibly benefit from scrapping polls.
