Once more we have a make-or-break week at Baluwatar. It's another cliff-hanger. Till presstime Thursday morning it looked like the three main parties had nearly hammered out a compromise deal on an electoral formula and on declaring Nepal a Federal Democratic Republic. But, predictably, there was a last minute hitch and the Maoists failed to show up for their meeting on Wednesday.
The people are getting tired of this. Many have tuned out. "Let us know when you've reached a deal," is the vox pop. They have more pressing everyday concerns. In the cities it is the endless fuel shortage, the crippling power cuts, the water crisis. Crime has got so bad that businessmen have hired bodyguards. In the eastern tarai we see the beginnings of what looks like ethnic cleansing and disgruntled madhesi politicians are now openly talking of secession. In the districts, Nepalis have given up waiting for Kathmandu to get its act together and are pushing development through their own initiative.
This is a collective failure of the six-plus-one party governing alliance, but someone must take responsibility for the lost year since the signing of the comprehensive peace accord. Last November, we knew the peace process wouldn't be easy, but we grossly underestimated the incompetence, narrow-mindedness and self-centeredness of our top leaders.
One casualty of the lost year has been development. This is a state machinery that is paralysed by political uncertainty and hasn't taken any major decisions on development investment. Large water projects are on hold, health and education are languishing and there has been no major investment drive to create jobs.
What has happened, has happened by default. Tourism is booming through no official effort, in fact visitor arrivals are up despite every effort to kill it by grounding the national airline, failing to upgrade shoddy infrastructure and extorting tourists who do show up.
New hydropower projects are stuck, so don't expect an easing of the power crisis for the next seven years. There is donor fatigue with the leadership and Nepal now has nuisance value in many world capitals.
In Manila next month the ADB will discuss what to do with Melamchi. Nepali experts have proposed a bold new plan to turn it into a multi-purpose project to not just put water in Kathmandu taps but generate power in a unique public-private partnership as well. (See p 4). This is the kind of creative thinking we need to leapfrog and make up for lost time.
Whoever comes to power after elections, no matter who is president, it won't be politics that will determine their longevity. Unless present rulers start thinking of development today, it won't matter who is in power. It won't matter whether we are a republic or a monarchy. Nothing will really matter.
It's time to fix the economy first.
