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The Maoists have argued that eradicating the monarchy will solve everything. Wish it was that simple.
Declaring Nepal a republic is not going to remove the risk of anarchy, separatism, and ethnic fragmentation. Even janajati and madhesi activists demanding full proportional representation in the June polls now sound like moderates compared to a new breed of ultra-radicals who see the end of the Nepali monarchy as an opportunity to scrap all treaties their territories or ethnicities negotiated with Prithbi Narayan Shah.
The current uncertainty is bringing out the most dangerous bigotry and fanaticism in Nepalis. Such extremism and intolerance will jeopardise not just the peace process but undermine this nation's reason for being. Elections are the only antidote to this insecure interregnum.
We shouldn't be asking whether the constituent assembly elections will be held on 22 November, but what we can collectively do to ensure that it does. For Nepalis the polls are synonymous with peace. Scrapping the polls or postponing it again will create socio-political turmoil that could spiral out of control.
If only the political players in the fray looked beyond immediate tactical gains to the larger national interest, they could easily create the conditions for free and fair polls in four months time.
Even if the security situation doesn't improve, elections can still be held in 80 percent of the country. Most janajati and madhesi activists are now committed not to let their demand for full proportional representation be the reason for delayed elections. That leaves the tarai armed groups and young communists, both of which can be brought in line if the 7+1 parties show a unity of purpose.
The anarchy in the eastern tarai is due more to the absence of the state and the political parties than the strength of the criminalised militant factions there.
At the moment, the UML is most enthusiastic about polls because it rates its chances as high. The Maoists are damned if they do and damned if they don't, but the longer this uncertainty drags on the worse it is for them. The NC is losing ground and is least keen, so it is banking on NC-D reunion. Even for king Gyanendra, an early election may be the only way to end the excruciating uncertainty about the future of the throne.
It is important to be focussed on elections, resolve uncertainties without downplaying the dangers. We in the media must proactively counter those deliberately fomenting ethnic discord and instigating anarchy and chaos. Those against the historic opportunity provided by the November polls will be sabotaging the chance of lasting peace. And it is easy to pinpoint who they are.
