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We can make such a depressing prediction with confidence because even a casual look at the annual pass rates of the last two decades assures us that there is no other system in Nepal that produces more losers than winners than the SLCs. If we add up only the number of regular candidates who have failed these annual exams since 1980 and compare the total to the number who passed, one conclusion is easy to draw: ours is a nation where a majority of literate adult citizens have repeatedly failed to earn even basic high school diplomas.
The implication of that conclusion is shocking-both for Nepal's multiparty democracy, which requires informed and engaged citizens and for Nepal's economic competitiveness, which demands skilled workers who can adapt to rapid changes in the marketplace. And every June, commentators from all sides of the political spectrum moan obligatorily about the low SLC pass-rates and what that means for Nepal's development. But within a day, they move on to write about the usual party-political tamasha, leaving these two questions forever on the table: why do so many Nepali students fail the SLCs and what can be done to help more of them succeed?
Researcher Saurav Dev Bhatta provides some answers. In a July 2005 study prepared for the Ministry of Education as a part of the SLC Study Team exercise, Bhatta attempts to tease out factors that determine students' performance in the SLC exams and offers policy prescriptions. His method is to run regressions on piles of data gathered from 452 schools, 22,500 students, 5,625 families, 452 principals and 2,500 teachers, to conclude, among others:
. When students in the hinterland receive, at the beginning of their SLC years, grades 9 and 10 textbooks a month late, the likelihood of their finishing the syllabus is low. As a result, they are often unprepared for the exams. This problem could be addressed by getting books to students in villages and in remote areas on time.
. State-run schools hire teachers with BEd degrees. But instead of teaching at their assigned schools, such teachers are often found to be away-attending the Education Ministry's various short-term training programs. As such, their frequent absenteeism appears to contribute to students' poor results. This problem could be addressed by first acknowledging that the Ministry's approach to teacher training appears to be negatively related to student performance and then taking steps to ensure that teachers stay in schools to actually teach and not hop on the next bus to Kathmandu for another training program.
. Schools with relaxed student-promotion policies, irregular testing schedules and poor homework policies tend to do worse in the SLCs. The stress needs to be on ways to encourage schools to raise student-promotion standards, administer more tests and assign and grade regular homework.
. Janjatis' performance is significantly lower than that of Brahmins except in English and math courses. This indicates that the former might be at a disadvantage in courses that require strong Nepali language skills. Bhatta suggests having targeted policies to help the Janjatis.
Bhatta found out that students' study habits, school conditions, family situations and community contexts have a significant impact on their SLC scores. The policy challenge now is to urgently tweak those variables so that more young Nepalis are on the path to earning their SLC or equivalent credentials. Anything less will continue to raise the cost of doing business in, and for Nepal, in coming years.
