Many of us mistook hope for conviction. It was our hope the Maoists would extend the ceasefire and therefore we tried to convince ourselves it would be in their best interest to do so.

But wars have their own momentum and those who wage them can't always influence their course. The Maoist leadership wasn't really worried about the Royal Nepali Army action in Rolpa or pressure from India, it was more concerned about its own rank and file. In the past ten years its guerrillas have become a battle-hardened and committed force. Foot soldiers are indoctrinated to march with scant regard for personal sacrifice and hardship towards the ultimate goal: overthrowing the ruler in Kathmandu and establishing a people's republic.

A fighting machine with such steadfastness to a cause can't just be told, ok folks the revolution is over we're going to share power with the enemy. However desperate the leadership is for an exit, however fervently it believes this is a war that can't be won, a revolution is not like a tap that can be turned off. Ever since the first shot killed the first policeman in Rolpa on 13 February 1996, the wheels of war had started turning. It is now a runaway train hurtling down the tracks.

It is when they stop fighting that fighters get tired of fighting. While the conflict rages there is no time to think of peace. A war is self-perpetuating. However Baburam Bhattarai may try to explain it during the ceasefire, desertions and defections from the Maoist force hit record highs. Local commanders were worried and itching to get back to war as a way to keep their force together.

The Maoist leadership must have reasoned the king and his army are not going to negotiate unless there are hit harder where it hurts. They may not be able to capture Kathmandu, but they can certainly carry out some headline-grabbing attacks.

The rebels could also be hoping to ride the seven-party street agitation and profit from future street unrest. That way they don't even need a military victory and there are plenty of examples of how that works: Teheran, Addis Ababa, Havana. And when things start snowballing, who knows where that will take us and who will remain standing when it is all over.

There is a similar compulsion on the regime's side: as long as the war drags on it can keep political parties shackled, genuine democracy on hold and rule with an iron hand. There are also less principled reasons to keep fighting, like profiteering from arms purchases.

That is why both warring sides are now on a hear no peace, see no peace and speak no peace mode.