Be warned: we are heading into a cold and dark winter and we don't mean that just figuratively. Among all the looming disasters this country faces, there is now also a power vacuum.

The coming electricity generation shortfall may pale in comparison to the headline grabbing political upheavals we face but we ignore it at our own peril. Despite being a regional watertower and powerhouse, electricity supply in this country is woefully inadequate, frightfully expensive and extremely unreliable. Decades of megalomania, kleptomania and myopia have prevented us from turning the energy of falling water into an engine of domestic growth and a valuable export product.

The reason for a dark winter is simple: demand is growing and generation capacity is stagnant. New plants are not going onstream for at least three years. On top of that, nearly all plants are run-of-the-river schemes where generation capacity depends on the flow of rivers. Problem is, demand is lowest when the plants generate most power (monsoon) and we have highest demand when generation is lowest (winter).

Kulekhani, which is our only reservoir type plant designed to augment supply at peak hour, hasn't filled up this year because of a poor monsoon. The crisis couldn't have come at a worse time for the beleaguered NEA. Middle Marsyangdi is running behind schedule, none of the private license holders have been meeting supply targets and there has been no new investment. We are burning the candle at both ends.

NEA could seriously try to cut pilferage, non-payment and leakage that contribute an astounding 40 percent system loss. Even halving that loss would be equivalent to building a brand new Kali Gandaki. The idea of differential tariffs needs to be fully implemented. Community power management has reduced losses to nearly zero in pilot villages but where is the upscaling? Locally-financed small hydro schemes are encouraging but can't address a grid-wide deficit.

It is already too late to start planning reservoir projects to tide over high-demand, low-flow months and we are decades behind in export projects. Dams take decades to build and the fate of West Seti is not an encouraging sign. Who is to say that the political deadlock today is not somehow related to give-and-take over future investment and control over our water resources?

Ironically, the only thing that has saved Nepal in the past is the lack of development. Our biomass economy is surprisingly resilient against international oil price hikes and electricity shortfalls. But only proactive planning now can ensure that in 10 years we will have power for Nepal's 30 million people and finally an economy that runs on exporting power and not manpower.