King Gyanendra's October Fourth decision and those after have been ascribed to a shadowy coterie of royal advisers. We don't know for certain who they are, but it's almost certain that neither premier Sher Bahadur Deuba nor his cabinet colleagues belong to that group.

Deuba knows where his orders come from. So he can't announce, defer or cancel parliamentary elections on his own. He has to wait for the appropriate light before pretending he has made up his mind. In the interim, he needs to show he is doing something. So, once in a while, he stirs the poll pot. Like everyone else in the kingdom, though, he too knows the absurdity of it all.

Despite his reputation, Deuba is nether na?ve nor inept. He is a survivor and perfectly aware of the price of confrontation. He refrained from directly challenging the palace even while he was out in the boondocks in Budanilkantha last time he got the sack.

King Gyanendra had dismissed him by pinning the "incompetent" label on his lapel. There were many in Kathmandu's diplomatic circles then who gave the king the benefit of doubt. They expected the king, with help from the military, would quickly clear up the Maobadi mess and hand power back to people's representatives. It's been two years and they are still waiting.

King Gyanendra has repeatedly said he is for constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy, but he hasn't given up his publicly declared intention that he also wants to be a 'constructive' (a politically correct synonym of 'active') monarch. Elections now will be an exercise in acquiring legitimacy for that active role rather than one that the constitution allows. Since the political parties agitating in the streets will be reluctant to commit hara-kiri by agreeing to polls, polls will end up alienating the parties from the monarchy even further. King Gyanendra is used to taking political risks, but this one is real big.

The Royal Nepali Army has been getting the goodies it wants but hasn't been able to meaningfully engage the Maoists. The military and the militants often play violent hide and seek-Tuesday night's attack in Mangalsen being another example of both sides claiming victory over the people's loss. Neither are in a position to subdue the other. And nobody is sure of the kind of election the army wants. As anyone with some contact with our jarsaps knows, the officers don't hold politicos in very high esteem. It may sound harsh, but there is a vested interest in keeping the conflict going.

As for the Maoists, they never believed power flows from the ballot box anyway. Unless they reach a stage where they have to either participate in polls or perish, they will do everything they can to disrupt elections. Their capacity to paralyse normal life isn't in doubt. It would be futile to expect that the Maoists will lamely surrender and let King Gyanendra receive popular endorsement of his direct rule.

The palace's propaganda machinery is good at turning victims into villains, but the only people with any stake in meaningful elections are the leaders of political parties on the streets. If they don't want elections, there must be a serious reason for their reluctance. And that is the dissonance between the pronouncements and practices of the post-October Fourth Order. The Maoists are enemies of democracy, but monarchists haven't shown they are friends of people power either.

And when Deuba boasts about holding elections, his own cabinet colleagues openly ridicule it. Bimalendra Nidhi has been urging reporters not to laugh, but to no avail. If Deuba really wants to hold free and fair elections, he should first hold free and frank discussions with the person who appointed him with the ambiguous mandate of "starting the process of elections" by year-end.

If updating the electoral roll is the beginning of the process, then preparations for polls have already begun. It's time Deuba took a lesson from Comrade Madhab's directives to his cadre and commit himself to a vow of silence and let the king say what exactly it is he wants.