This country is running out of options. As the choices narrow, the discourse gets polarised and even the moderates are being pushed to be radically republican or royalist.
The four agitating parties on the streets ran out of options some time ago. The anti-'regression' protest has suffered from attrition. Desperate to sow unrest, one party stooped as low as trying to spread communal violence on 1 September after 12 Nepalis were killed in Iraq. Lately it has used the fuel the price hike but the protests fail to ignite because the people see the protests as being led by crooks who just want their turn at the till.
King Gyanendra's October Fourth gameplan isn't going anywhere, either. He is now down to just two options: consolidate his takeover and scrap the constitution once and for all, or roll back October Fourth and restore a semblance of democracy. The international community has reportedly sent unambiguous signals that he desist from the temptation to go it alone. By now, it must be clear even to him that the musical chairs game of Article 127 can't go on. The king therefore needs a face-saving way out, and the only one we see is for him to join hands with a rejuvenated poltiical process. For the parties it means recognising the crisis and coming together in a national government to address the deep-seated problems with the polity.
The Maoists used to have time on their hands: as the country's economic situation deteriorated because of the insurgency they just needed to bide their time as frustrations grew. Not any more. The revolution is in serious danger of devouring itself. There are signs of dangerous rifts. Desertions and resistance are spreading. To bring things back on track, assert themselves and even to provide a strong bargaining position in future negotiations, the dominant hardliners will want to mark the ninth anniversary of the start of the war next month with some big bangs.
Out of Nepal's 25 million people, there are probably only some 150 (arms merchants, hawks on both sides, toy boys) who benefit from this conflict. The rest don't want to have anything to do with this war. The trouble is that this overpowering peace constituency is not organised and represented to articulate its wish. The people have been let down by the people they elected, by a palace that is supposed to care, and by revolutionaries who have brought nothing but ruin.
Of the three, the only way to give the people back their voice is to allow them to speak through their representatives. The parliamentary parties may have squandered democacy, but it is they who have lost the most, physically and psychologically, in the past nine years. Whether it is to restore parliament, reform the constitution, have elections, engage the Maoists in negotiations, bringing the parties back in the picture is the least-cost option. Despite their sins only parties in a genuine democracy offer the self-correcting mechanism needed to get us out of this mess. Authoritarianism and totalitarianism are both dead ends.
