Communists the world over are big on anniversaries. The Maoists even more so. No surprise, therefore, that their threat to close down 11 large businesses was timed for the first anniversary of the Doramba massacre on 17 August. The announcement of the blockade of the valley also comes a year after the breakdown of the last ceasefire. The Maoists and the army blamed each other for the collapse of that truce, but it was no secret that their minds were not in it. Both sides were using it to rearm, and the Maoists to take their revolution a notch higher to the 'strategic equilibrium' phase.

In the past year, the Maoists have skillfully shifted the country's political spectrum to the left-most parties have now come around to supporting at least their constituent assembly demand if not openly espousing republicanism. This was helped in no small measure by King Gyanendra's own uncompromising position vis-?-vis the parliamentary parties in the past two years. The end result is that the conflict in this country has now gone from tripolar to bipolar: we are being forced to choose between republic or monarchy. This blurring of the middle suits the Maoists just fine.

The question is how long do the rebels and the royals want this to drag on. How long do the people have to be punished for this power struggle which is now boiling down to its essence: the supremacy of the monarchy. It would save a lot of grief if the monarch, in the long-term interest of his own dynasty and people, offered a devolution of his traditional powers. By waiting, the consequences may be much more dire for his kingdom and his subjects.

Such a compromise would not be a sign of weakness but of statesmanship. Immediately, it would pave the way for a truce and talks. But the two needn't happen together: we have seen in Sri Lanka that a ceasefire is possible even if there is no immediate prospect of negotiations. All you need is the political will to find a middle way. At the very least, a truce would give 24 million Nepalis who want no part in this war some relief and breathing space.

A ceasefire can also be unilateral, and we wholeheartedly endorse the UML's stand on this. The military needn't see this as a sign of defeat since it won't really change things on the ground. Instead, it will provide the army the moral high ground. The Maoists, whose revolution is now in danger of degenerating into a nationwide extortion racket, would be forced to respond.

By continuing to kill journalists and unarmed citizens, the rebels have earned the opprobrium of civilised people everywhere. Their valley siege is a dangerous end-game gamble to put pressure on the palace. Added up, we sense a desperate attempt to arrange a soft landing. The government must respond with a proactive peace gesture.