This peace process was supposed to be about talking, not letter-writing. Yet, the two negotiating teams are behaving like pen pals rather than negotiators trying to find a way to prevent a ruinous seven-year war from igniting again.
One could argue that it is better that they fire missives at each other rather than missiles. And however provocative the language of the letters from the Maoists, there are compelling reasons to believe that they are not about to plunge themselves and the nation into war at this time. Saner heads in the military also know fully well there is no way to win a guerrilla war in this terrain with present equipment and strength. And as far as we can tell, neither side wants to take the country down the path of a deadly stalemate and give outsiders the excuse to turn this into an arena for a proxy war. Yet both sides have had a six-month rest, they are armed to the teeth and give the impression they are spoiling for a fight.
The palace, the parties and the Maoists all agree on basic points, the only real political questions that need to be settled are the whats and hows of changes, if any, in the constitution. So where is the problem? Why this brinkmanship, why do the belligerents insist on taking this nation and its people repeatedly to the edge of the cliff to make us stare down at a bottomless pit.
We can understand the Maoists' impatience. The leadership is under pressure from a militia that needs to be fed, taken care of and ideologically occupied. And seven months after the ceasefire, there is little to show for it. The hard talk in Baburam Bhattarai's letter this week, although addressed to the government, appeared to be more an attempt to assuage his restless rebels on the ground. But that is no reason for the government to take things lightly.
Disarray in government, replacement of the negotiating team, and a prime minister preoccupied with trying to get parliamentary parties on board has meant that there has been no concrete political proposal from the state. The rebels are taking advantage of this confusion and have been heaping on new demands and pre-conditions.
Let's hope this sabre-rattling is just a face-saving device, both sides now read public opinion accurately, and will now get down to substantive discussions. What is the alternative to the third round: back to fighting? Isn't there supposed to be a strategic equilibrium? And doesn't that mean a war in which no one wins? Didn't the Maoists themselves admit that a new round of conflict will mean foreign forces will come in? Is that what they want?
Most of the social, political and economic demands the Maoists laid down when they started this war have been accepted by everyone. And if they renounce violence and join a reformed political process all remaining demands will automatically be met. There is really no reason to fight anymore.