Reading the editorials and commentaries appearing in much of the left-wing press these days, you get a feeling that the main opposition CPN-UML has completed its post-election cabinet line-up down to the minister without portfolio.
But are Nepalis anywhere close to getting their first majority communist government after last month's merger between the two largest mainstream leftist groups? The answer would depend on, among other things, exactly where the union stands between amalgamation and infiltration. For now, at least, the comrades don't seem too bothered about such technicalities as long as the prodigal son who has returned is who he says he is. But, surely, the celebrations can't go on forever. When a political player as proficient as Comrade Bam Dev Gautam decides to return home at the cost of relinquishing the position of general secretary of the CPN-ML he built and nurtured, you can't afford to swear by the Communist Manifesto.
Moreover, Gautam is nowhere near the deputy general secretary's post he once held in the UML, which serves to reinforce suspicions that his words of contrition might be a red herring. Even after accounting for the fishiness of politics, other incongruities persist. From the way UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal embraced Gautam at the Rastriya Sabha Griha (see picture left), where the Lord of the Left and his workers had broken themselves from the UML's chains four years ago, it was easy to forget how the main opposition party had once publicly castigated Gautam as the country's most corrupt politician. Gautam's tirades against the UML's abandonment of the cause, too, seemed to have been consigned to the dust heap of history.
Much blood, sweat and tears have flown down Nepal's rivers since irreconcilable differences over the ratification of the Mahakali Treaty and the language characterising the extra-territorial ambitions of the United States and India forced Gautam & Co to walk out of the UML. Both camps later acknowledged that the split deprived them of a majority in the 1999 general election. Since ML leaders maintain they have returned to the UML keeping intact those differences, electoral calculations must have spurred a partial conciliation.
A greater catalyst, however, seems to be the success the Nepali Congress reaped by putting on a facade of unity before the election. Kangresis proved how forgiving Nepalis could be of politicians who could at least pretend they were friends. When Girija Prasad Koirala nominated Krishna Prasad Bhattarai as prime minister weeks before the first votes had been cast, not too many Nepalis were convinced that the eternally squabbling party elders had finally decided to engage in some healthy rivalry. But voters gave the Kangresis a majority any way, allowing them to foist on the country three prime ministers in as many years.
To be sure, the ML's fate was sealed when it failed to win a single parliamentary seat in the last election. Amid a steady exodus of cadres to the Maoist camp, ML strategists were forced to face the facts. Although the ML was officially the third largest national party, state media accorded its leaders a place behind Narayan Man Bijukche on the news bulletins. For Gautam, repudiating the UML was relatively easy, especially with the help of such allies as the perennial dissident, CP Mainali. However, when Mainali couldn't quit being the permanent leader of the opposition in the new party, Gautam knew his moment of truth had come. (How Mainali fares in his budding association with leaders like Rajeshwar Devkota and Dhundi Raj Shastri would be avidly watched in the days ahead.)
To be fair, Gautam has never concealed his fervent ambition of becoming prime minister. When he became deputy premier in-and the de facto head of-Lokendra Bahadur Chand's government, a TV interviewer tossed a routine question: had he ever imagined he would reach such a high position? Apparently, Gautam felt insulted. From the very first time he walked into the visitors' gallery at the Rastriya Panchayat, Gautam told the interviewer, he knew he would become prime minister one day. Although Gautam refused to divulge how, as a politician in hiding, he managed to get a visitor's pass only members of the partyless chamber were authorised to approve then, he made his point. Similar conviction must have led Gautam to assert in a recent magazine interview that he considered his return to the UML as a major step towards his ultimate destination.
All these years outside parliament, Gautam had enough time to take a hard look at his former titular boss, Chand. It didn't take long for Gautam to realise that his voice would carry wider reverberations as a member of the main opposition party than it would as the general secretary of one having a single member in the upper house.
Nepal, for his part, felt he needed someone strong enough to check the aspirations of colleagues like Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. When Oli, who was denying knowledge of unity talks until very late in the process, realised he couldn't stop Gautam's homecoming, he planned his own welcome. The UML deputy leader organised a tea party for Gautam while Nepal was away on a study tour of the Westminster chambers. By the time the unification was officially announced, Pradip Nepal, who was entrusted by the UML to crown Gautam with the Most Corrupt title, joined in a rendition of the Internationale.
Even if the UML were to get a majority in the next election, it would still have challenges to surmount. A major one is the fact that both Madhav Nepal and Gautam have served as deputy prime minister. Given the balance of power in the UML, that shouldn't complicate the election of the new prime minister. The nature of the coexistence between Nepal's authority and Gautam's ambition, however, would influence how events unfold. Maybe Oli is the man we should really be keeping
an eye on.