Although the government-Maoist truce has brought a semblance of peace for the past three weeks, Maoist extortion and intimidation have not ceased. In fact they have gone into high gear. The only sector feeling the effect of the ceasefire is the badly-demoralised police force.

Before discussions with the Maoists, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba called for a meeting of all political parties represented in parliament and the CPN-ML on 10 August. It gave him the mandate to talk, and asked the government to make a carefully thought-out negotiating strategy. The government and Maoists have both named their negotiating teams, and talks may be held by 26 August. As a pre-emptive confidence-building move towards talks, the prime minister has risked intense political opposition to announce that his government will undertake a land reform and management program, abolish untouchability from Nepal's tradition and culture and guarantee women inheritance rights at par with their brothers.

This is a government duly elected by the will of the people, it has thus the legitimacy to govern and also has recognition from the international community. It has the mandate of all political parties to negotiate a peace-settlement without compromising on two fundamental issues: the constitutional monarchy and the continuation of parliamentary democracy.

The people are fed up with the violence, intimidation and arson being committed in the name of the "peoples' war". The constituency is for peace, and if free of coercion, the people will back the forces of freedom and democracy as against totalitarianism represented by the Maoists. Should there be a failure of the talks, the forces of democracy backed by the army and other security organs will have no option but to quell the insurgency with decisive force.

The Maoists, on the other hand, began their revolution with a populist call for social and economic reform. Unfortunately it has degenerated in many areas into a free-for-all of threats and blackmail. It is possible that the Maoists will provide better governance than we have had in the past 11 years. Sure enough, they have been exploiting the weaknesses of parliamentary democracy and its inability to deliver basic services to the poor. But the very problems that drive their revolution today will be the ones that bedevil them if they come to power.
The ranks of the jobless are swelling, the economy is stagnant, investment is down to zero, and there is no sign of hope, because the political class is mired in corruption and selfish bickering. The law and order situation has deteriorated. And the Maoists have just moved into the vacuum taking advantage of the disarray in government and the political order. They are now using the truce to hold open mass meetings and declare parallel "peoples' governments" in new districts. So far, aside from not attacking police there has been no let-up in their activities.
But it is apparent that the Maoist tactics of spreading terror, not only in the police force but increasingly now among unarmed civilians through the use of brutal force, has turned many away from their revolution. The Maoists may also not easily get the cooperation of the international community if they succeed in setting up a one party dictatorship.

Securing a majority of seats in parliament by a single party does not necessarily ensure political stability. We have seen three governments in two and half years, largely because of political infighting within the Nepali Congress. The present system of electing representative of parliament gives all to the winner and nothing to the losers. The Nepali Congress with only 33 percent of the popular vote has over 50 percent representation in parliament and runs the government single-handedly. The CPN-ML has over three percent of popular vote but no representation in parliament.

Keeping in mind the political reforms that are needed, the Maoists and the government now need to negotiate a peace deal keeping the interest of the nation and the people above political and partisan interests. At present, the stance of both the government and the Maoists appear on surface to be intractable. The Maoists' three substantive demands: the establishment of a people's republic, the setting up of a constituent assembly, and the drafting of a new constitution are unacceptable to the government. The constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy are non-negotiables.

So, is there a way out? The government can easily meet most of the other 40 points the Maoists have put forward, and many of them have been addressed in Deuba's 17-point agenda. But the government should now also be prepared to hold mid-term elections, and agree to form a new government comprising of all political parties including the Maoists. It must consider tinkering with clauses in the constitution if that helps ensure better governance. The role of the army and its command certainly needs to be more clearly in line with constitutional monarchy.

The government must now also plan for the eventuality of the talks failing. It must start immediately to coordinate the activities of its security organs and be physically and psychologically prepared. If the Maoists believe that "power flows from the barrel of a gun," then the government must counter it with "if we want peace, we must be prepared for war." The onus of avoiding a wider war is on both sides. Should negotiations fail, the country would be polarised between democratic forces and forces of totalitarianism. We would then slide into civil war, and the spiralling unrest is bound to attract foreign intervention. This would undermine our sovereignty and ultimately lead to the dismemberment or annihilation of the Nepali nation.