Extremists and political actors in the plains have found a fertile breeding ground in the state of statelessness and discontent
In the good old days, people from outside Kathmandu Valley used to refer to the capital as Nepal. And over the centuries, the high and mighty in Kathmandu took that literally to ignore the rest of the country.
Even after democracy in 1990, the preoccupation of those who clawed their way to Singha Darbar remained the same. They pushed the country into a bloody conflict and six years ago let the Madhes burn.
As the country prepares for another election, angst is growing again in the plains. Lack of jobs, crumbling infrastructure, and a sense of being let down by their own leaders have left the region in a state of dangerous hopelessness.
The dissolution of the Constituent Assembly last May dashed Madhesi hopes for autonomy and self-rule, giving impetus to extreme voices calling for a violent uprising against Kathmandu. Extremists and political actors who have nothing to lose have found a fertile breeding ground in this state of statelessness and discontent. However, as with most cases of political extremism, it is not about the welfare of the disenfranchised but exploiting their discontent to gain power.
There are three forces in the Tarai who are against elections. The MJF-Nepal led by Upendra Yadav says it will take part in polls, but has some populist demands to appease the plains constituency. Through the ongoing negotiations with the High Level Political Committee, Yadav is just trying to consolidate his position and will join the election process.
Two weeks ago, Jaya Krishna Goit of the Tarai Liberation Front issued a statement attacking the current breed of Madhesi leaders for betraying the ‘One Madhes’ agenda. But he did not say anything against elections. Most armed groups operating on both sides of the border are not political in nature and chances are that they will be up for hire as campaign muscle. Last week’s attack on MJF-N’s Mahottari leader is a case in point. Some of these groups were hounded by the state during the Madhav Nepal government and feel betrayed by top Madhesi leaders who they believe failed to protect them at the time.
The third force which has the potential to create turmoil in the Madhes before elections is not a group, but an individual. After being released from jail in March, the corruption-tainted JP Gupta has maintained that he was framed by the state for standing up for the Madhesis. But he has never bothered to explain the vast wealth he was accused of accumulating in office.
Another tainted leader, Khum Bahadur Khadka of the NC, who served time with Gupta and will be released next month after serving his sentence for corruption, has already pledged his support for Gupta.
Gupta will not be allowed to contest elections even if he wanted to, so he has taken the self-righteous position of not hankering for power. His Tarai Madhes Campaign is supposed to be for the ‘sensitisation’ of Madhesi youth, but appears to be a disguised political mobilisation. His meeting with Jay Krishna Goit in India was also suspicious. Various political parties have been similarly using the excuse of bringing armed groups into their fold to set up vanguard forces for elections.
The quickest way to defuse this situation is to hold elections and pave the way for restructuring of the state and ensuring Madhesi autonomy over its destiny. But the political landscape is so fluid that November elections are once more uncertain and even if they happen, it is doubtful they will be truly free, fair, and peaceful.
Anurag Acharya is Program Officer at the Centre for Investigative Journalism.
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