INTERDISCIPLINARY ANALYSTS, SAMPLE SIZE: 3,000

The mystery of why some populations rise up to spontaneously protest, while others don't is the subject of academic research at universities around the world. There are several PhDs waiting to be done about the high pain threshold of Nepalis. How long does a society endure sustained and chronic hardships until it breaks? What is Nepal's tipping point?

We mutter and shrug: no diesel, no petrol, no gas, no electricity, no cash, no jobs, no passports, no problem. There is little hope of things getting better anytime soon, and the hopelessness is turning to apathy. 

Cynics say we have the leadership we deserve. As long as the people tolerate an establishment made up of murderers and kidnappers, war criminals and passport fakers, we don't deserve any better. In any other country a motorcyclist who has waited four hours in the cold rain for petrol, watched government vehicles jumping the queue, and then found the fuel has run out when he gets to the pump, would run amok and start a riot. Even the Baidya faction of the Maoists only threatens an urban uprising, it never actually seems to want to do it even though there is plenty of reason for people to rise up.

Some theorists have speculated on why this is so: the legendary capacity of Nepalis to tolerate hardship and suffering, our society's self-centeredness, we wait for protests to be put together by organised groups or parties, we have come to expect nothing from governments, and are used to making the best of a bad situation. Whatever the reason, successive rulers of Nepal have understood this psycho-social trait, and exploited it ruthlessly.

This is also why elected representatives of the people, the government and civil service are so unresponsive to the people's needs. They habitually ignore public opinion because their legitimacy comes from manipulating the system, not from performance or delivery. Elections are only partly fair and hardly free, so crooks get elected over and over again.

Public opinion polls conducted by Himalmedia and others in the past year show growing disillusionment with the political establishment and elected representatives. Never has the gap between the people's needs (inflation, health, education, jobs) and the obsession of the rulers (power, money) been as wide as it is now.

The Himalmedia poll of May 2011 corresponds almost exactly with the results of the latest cycle of polls conducted by Interdisciplinary Analysts (IDA), the results of which were published recently. In both polls, most respondents didn't seem to be bothered about federalism, secularism, or even that Nepal is now a republic. There is a backlash against the politicisation of ethnicity, and the proportion of people who said they'd like to be identified as Nepali only grew from 58 per cent in 2010 to 71 per cent last year. Both polls showed the people are fed up with politicians and want new elections.

Politicians should sit up and take notice. Asked about who they will vote for in the next election, the IDA poll shows 57 per cent of the respondents were undecided. Of those with preferences, the IDA and Himalmedia polls both put the NC ahead of the Maoists, with the UML trailing. The next elections (whenever that happens) is about winning the hearts and minds of the 57 per cent who are undecided. If­­­­­ conducted fairly, leaders with better performance and integrity will win.

We have seen politicians in the past who have made a big difference in a small time in office. Local council leaders in the 1990s were re-elected based on performance. It would be too much to expect a cabinet made up of mostly hoodlums to even understand this, which is why the prime minister must show statesmanship and throw out the rotten eggs in his government before his own image is irreversibly tarnished.

Forming a government of national unity may be just the right opportunity to bring in clean technocrats. Address the shortages and there will be no shortage of votes.

For IDA Opinion Poll Report: info@ida.com

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