Nepali Times
Headline
Fluid situation


ANALYSIS by SHIVA GAUNLE



SAGAR SHRESTHA

RUNNING DRY: Many Kathmandu residents are already facing a crippling water shortage.

Everywhere you look, there is uncertainty. There is no consensus on any major political issue. The will to find political solutions to problems seems to be at an all-time low.

The follow-up to Girija Prasad Koirala's visit to Biratnagar was lackadaisical. Yesterday the prime minister met with UML leader Madhab Kumar Nepal, and the two are said to have agreed tentatively on dates for the election to the constituent assembly. What those dates are is not yet certain. The longer a decision on dates for the election is delayed, the more difficult the November scenario looks.

In any case, agreement on poll dates must come after consultation with the other six parties too, and there is no sign of the much-discussed eight-party meeting either. The coming week could see the interim parliament sitting again, and an all-party government meeting, but issues such as minority representation, ensuring a reliable petrol supply, and reopening closed schools appear to be on the back burner.

The vacuum in decision-making is exacerbating the already fragile law and order situation. The YCL continues its intimidation, ransacking district administration offices. The violence between the Janatantrik Tarai Mukti Morcha's Goit and Jwala Singh factions claimed its fourth life this week yesterday. In the cantonments, the Maoist fighters are getting restless, while the verification process remains stalled. Madhesi, janajati, adibasi, and tharu groups across the country are stepping up demands for representation. New groups, some of them militant, are mushrooming, further destabilising the state.

The fuel crisis will not go away until the subsidy-supported price differential is removed. Until then, the erratic supplies could prove be a flashpoint for more street action. The murder of a World Bank engineer yesterday by the JTMM (Goit) is a serious setback to the energetic resumption of development projects. Schools remain closed because the government could not implement an agreement its immediate predecessor signed with protesting teachers.

The bargaining between and within parties looks set to continue, as does the inability to find political, rather than bureaucratic or law and order solutions to the myriad issues being thrown up. The longer the country remains in limbo, the more political, ethnic, social, and economic problems rear their heads. The process to get back on track is becoming even more difficult and complicated.



LATEST ISSUE
638
(11 JAN 2013 - 17 JAN 2013)


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