Nepal waits with a deep sense of foreboding for the unilateral Maoist ceasefire to end next week. Nepalis are also bracing themselves for a conjunction of anniversaries that portend an ominous start to the new year.

On 1 February it will be one year since the royal takeover turned the country topsy-turvy and made it an international pariah. There will be many occasions to post mortem the royal coup in the month ahead, but for now suffice it to say that it failed in the king's avowed goal to restore democracy and peace. The regime can't even take credit for the relative calm of the past four months. Instead of working to restore democracy it has systematically taken it apart and tried to gag media, especially citizens' radio.

Then on 8 February is the municipal election that will invite direct confrontation between the government, parties and rebels. On 15 February it will be the tenth anniversary of the 'people's war' which the Maoists are preparing to mark with fireworks. Rebel commanders have made no secret of their intention to foment an urban uprising in Kathmandu.

Instead of marking the tenth anniversary with more bloodshed, the comrades would do well to use it to enter the political arena. They are much more likely to catapult themselves to state power that way, and what's more they don't have to wreck the country in the process. Besides, without an enemy to fight the king can't use the insurgency as an excuse to return to autocratic monarchy.

The Maoists must know by now that all the conflict has done in the last ten years is make the king more powerful, increase foreign interference, debilitate the nation, sideline moderates, introduce a culture of settling scores through violence and bring untold misery to the Nepali people.

The past four months has also proved that just because fighters on two sides aren't killing each other, it doesn't mean there isn't violence. In Gulmi, Agrakhanchi and across the country families with brothers and fathers in the Gulf or Malaysia are being forced by Maoists to pay a flat Rs 30,000 tax per year. This is violence-not against class enemies but the very people the revolution was supposed to liberate.

Not extending the ceasefire will only benefit those in charge of the unaffordable and immoral militarisation of this country. Comrades, if you want to make up for the destruction of the past ten years and win back free and genuine support of the Nepali people you will not be provoked into going back to war.