Every day that the peace talks are delayed, the people pay a price. This condition of no-war-no-peace is costing us in opportunity lost, in development and reconstruction delayed, in an economy that continues to be paralysed by the uncertainty, and in tourism that will not fully rebound. This is probably what purgatory feels like: the region between heaven and hell.

The situation will not get back to normal even if the third round of peace talks begin by next week. But at least there will be psychological relief that the two parties are still engaged, and the negotiation process is on track. The ground reality has worsened in the week after Prachanda's statement agreeing to resume talks. Every day, there are reports of security forces units being ambushed. Last week, two unarmed soldiers in civvies, returning to guard duty at a telecom tower in Sindhuli, were tortured and killed on the day Prachanda offered the olive branch. A policeman inspecting flood damage in Nawalparasi was killed the next day. On Tuesday, an army vehicle was blown up by a land mine in Panchthar and four soldiers were killed. This doesn't look like a ceasefire anymore, it looks more like Iraq.

An earlier report of a grenade attack on a police post in Ramechhap turned out to be lightning strike that set off booby traps on the base perimeter. The fact that the entire national press got the story wrong was only proof that the truce is on a hair-trigger.

The first six months of the ceasefire were tense, but there hadn't been as serious violations of the code of conduct. Could the Maoists be sending a message to the government and the army that they will enforce the 5km deal unless the talks are taken more seriously? Keeping the helicopters flying into Chhauni military hospital every day is a way of reminding the government what could happen if they don't. Such raids would also improve the Maoists' bargaining position on the third round.

A mysterious flurry of statements and press conferences by a suddenly-active group of Maoists in Rasuwa, Nuwakot and Sindhupalchok against American-funded NGOs and USAID could also be a part of a strategy of symbolically warning off superpower intervention. Interestingly, the more the Maoists lash out against "American imperialism" the more it exposes their inconsistency in suddenly going silent on what they earlier used to call "Indian expansionsm".

A more sinister explanation for the present escalation in incidents is that there are groups within the movement who do not agree with the talks, feel that an open-ended negotiation process will weaken the militia, and therefore they are carrying out their own offensives. The leadership may be forced to allow impatient cadre this autonomy to carry out hit-and-run raids to avoid a more serious rupture. As it is, Maoist extortion, threats, abductions have continued unabated. And having looted most of the food and money from villagers, they are now taking away pressure cookers from households in the districts.

Whatever the explanation, the incidents raise serious questions about the peace process. Something must have been lost in the translation, but the Defence Ministry expressing mere "sadness" at recent killings of soldiers shows the government wants to talk at any cost. The prime minister is in a quandary: his emotional appeal this week to the parties to bury differences and join the talks has been roundly rejected by the agitators. He is also getting no cooperation from a palace clique that backs his party rival.

The fact that the parties will not even listen to Thapa\'s logic that constitutional forces should stick together at this time of crisis points to a serious lack of trust and communication. The king isn\'t doing much to rebuild this trust. And, as for Girija Prasad Koirala, it is now becoming an end-game to try to checkmate the king before the CIAA pins him down on a serious corruption charge.

Hence the decision by the political parties not to be a part of the peace process. The strategy: \'We\'ll put a spanner in the works, unless\'. This maybe Koirala\'s personal insurance policy, but it doesn\'t help the country at all. It is also counterproductive for the parties, since it disregards strong public support for an all-party approach to talks. The parties have justified their decision saying that a peace process in the absence of democracy makes no sense, but this argument is getting more and more frayed.

After all, there was a parliament and what passed for democracy in the past seven years. But not only were successive governments incapable of resolving the insurgency, but they actually made things worse with their near-sighted, narrow-minded ineptitude. Unless the parties can demonstrate that they have turned a new leaf, that they now have a bold new plan to make democracy more representative and accountable, the people will not be inclined (as we say around these parts) to give the coconut back to the monkey.