The big happening on the streets of Kathmandu recently was not the bandh, but the arrival of micro-buses as public transport. Purely from the aesthetic point of view the vans do look better than the smoke-belching Vikrams they replaced although not quite as safa as the electric three-wheelers.

The micros were delayed due to the government\'s characteristic non-decision, and in the interim, many more tempos (propelled by batteries and cooking gas) were also allowed. The traffic arithmetic is not looking good. The 600 Vikrams are being replaced with almost an equal number of micros. But what of the 800 other three-wheelers that have entered the traffic stream since last October? The carrying capacity of public transport has now jumped from 6,500 to nearlv 20,000.

Has Kathmandu\'s population increased by so much that these seats can be filled, or are new routes being serviced? The answer to both questions, sadly, is "No". The rate race is already on: you can see micros whizzing past the purring Safas on the Pulchowk or Tundikhel incline. Nepal\'s public transport is in the hands of powerful "associations" that are actually pampered monopolies that pay for route permits. Licenses cost up to Rs 300,000 on paper, but the real price is hush-hush.

Permits are issued indiscriminately without even understanding the impact of excessive supply. Since the money is paid upfront, associations aren\'t bothered about whether a business survives. New routes are not allowed, the commuter\'s welfare is the least of their worries, and variable pricing is unheard of.

So, if a new company wants to run air-conditioned buses from Bhaktapur to Baudha charging slightly higher prices which the commuter is ready to pay, it can\'t. The associations will not allow it. Economic reforms have not been able to touch these monopolies, and political protection allows survival of the permit-mafia. The initial success of the electric and gas three-wheelers attracted a lot of investment. In the absence of other investment opportunities, money poured into them. The herd mentality of Nepali entrepreneurship was well supported by finance companies and co-operatives. Now, the operators are feeling the pinch.

Creditors are calling for installments just as the micros arrive on the scene. The front pages of newspapers these days are full of notices to three wheeler operators to pay up, or else. So what is the long-term strategy for public transportation in the valley? Do we allow-three-wheeler and micros to grow at the present rate, or do we replace them with bigger more regular buses on trunk routes? The Safas are clean, but we are running out of space on the streets for them.

What is our response to carrying capacity? What do we do with the old buses that are the worst belchers? Shouldn\'t we look at price differentiation for local and express services? And how do we defang the powerful bus associations so that some of these problems can be addressed.
Anybody listening?